Kentucky Derby 151

The first Saturday in May is here, so it is time for Kentucky Derby 151.

For the first time since I began this annual writeup, I was going to skip a year. I began a new chapter in my life a year ago as an entrepreneur centered around artificial intelligence. My time has become incredibly valuable, and I did not think I wanted to commit the time it takes to put my heart into a race that is special to me. A friend reached out recently and said they were looking forward to it, and I mentioned I was going to take the year off. The person said something to me that reminded me why I have done this and how I learned how to handicap a race in the first place.

Earlier this year, my father passed away. How can a son, who learned a skill from his father that led to my success in the markets and writes about it every year, take off the year his father passes? So I decided it must happen for 2025. For the past nine days, I have watched every prep race, and of course, I shout out to my most knowledgeable friend, ChatGPT, who I had endless conversations with on the 30+ YouTube transcripts I used to gather information and analytics to put this together. And of course, thanks to you, Dad, for what you taught me to put this together. Here we go!

Each year I write this paper, I hope the time spent handicapping the race will help you enjoy the day and the race even more. The goal, of course, is to help you be profitable. But more importantly—and I will reiterate what I wrote in the first piece years back—it is to encourage those of you who have never attended the Derby, as over 150,000 people do every year, to do so at least once in your life. The Kentucky Derby has survived the test of time and is a true piece of Americana. It gathers friends and families from all over the country as they come back to see each other and enjoy a day of laughter, excitement, and, in some cases, overindulgence. It is like a prom, reunion, and Mardi Gras wrapped up into one, and you can visit all three parties in a single day that feels like it never ends. Not to mention that every 30 minutes it becomes like New Year’s Eve with a ball dropping as another horse race goes off. This creates a break of 1–2 minutes of suspense and excitement. No matter what your age is, the Derby makes you feel young for the day, and in this age of millennials where experiences are being valued and where it is harder to keep people’s attention spans, remember this is the most exciting two minutes in sports. The day itself is 480 minutes, and it is a day of memories that will last a lifetime! The Derby is a bucket list experience not to be missed.

My father owned racehorses for part of my childhood and was my inspiration for this annual write-up. He taught me how to handicap a race at an early age. From a young age, this experience served as the beginning of my journey using data analytics to make better decisions. This handicapping approach is the same way I approach all aspects of the decisions in my life, including the recent decision to be an entrepreneur focused on AI and Bitcoin. There have been many books about poker and decision-making, but handicapping a race is very similar to handicapping the markets and the future of the economy. There are narratives about why people like horses. There are analytics in the racing program and all the different speed ratings available. Finally, parimutuel betting in a horse race means the ultimate odds are driven by the bettors’ decisions—just like multiples of the stock market are driven by investors’ expectations and change as people’s decisions change. My father taught me to listen to the narratives, go through my analytics, consider racing and training patterns, and watch the movements of the odds. Then, based on my handicapping, I compare my own probabilities of the horses winning with the odds that the rest of the bettors have set and look for value. This is very different from how most people approach the race in a “Who do you think will win?” way. You are looking for opportunities driven by value, where over time your edge will win out.

Each year my father loved to read my Derby analysis, probably because he knew he taught me how to think about finding value rather than trying to find the winner. He never cared about the analytics and history of winners of the past but cared more about the overall analysis of each horse based on what I had seen and gone through in the old-school handicapping techniques. In honor of him, this year, I will give him straight handicapping analysis rather than the historical analytics-heavy approach of years past.

For a race like the Derby, you have the opportunity to do your homework and look at historical trends and statistics that have mattered over time. This approach toward value is even more necessary given the size of the field, the inexperience of the horses, and the number of bettors who only bet on this horse race each year. Recently, favorites have dominated, but historically, over the prior 150 runnings, this race offers value. With this mindset, my analysis in past years has been to break the handicapping down into five categories and use historical statistics to eliminate horses that appear too slow, lack the necessary experience, or don’t appear to have the endurance for the grueling journey.

The key angle for me in the 2025 Kentucky Derby is the combination of the likely early pace and the post positions. I will be shocked if the early pace is not very fast. The horse in the race with the best speed is Citizen Bull, and he drew post one, so he will be breaking hard and driving the pace. Add in that most of the other need-the-lead horses are inside, and it is very hard for me not to see a fast early pace. This sets up perfectly for mid-pack runners and closers, and while the favorite, Journalism, sits tactically behind the speed, he’ll need to avoid getting caught up too close. Fortunately, he has shown maturity, strong finishing figures, and he drew in the middle, which I think allows him to find a spot and use the resilience he displayed overcoming trouble in both the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. His training at Churchill has been exceptional, and most experts agree he is the most likely winner if he gets a clean trip. Most importantly for bettors, fast early paces usually open the door for longshots at the finish line, and I think even if it is in exotics, take a shot on the longshots.

My favorite analysis for the race is always driven by ThoroGraph sheets. It is a powerful tool for analyzing both the raw speed necessary to win the Kentucky Derby and the developmental patterns that reveal which horses are ready to take a forward step versus those who may already have peaked. Based on my analysis, the results for figure progression and pattern analysis, the top seven contenders in the 2025 field are Journalism, Baeza, Burnham Square, Sovereignty, and Tappan Street. Journalism stands out with a rare negative figure (-½) and a pattern of consistency that suggests he remains poised for another top effort. Burnham Square has an ideal paired-figure trajectory (4-4-1¼), hinting at a peak performance still to come. Sovereignty’s paired 1¾s give him a classic “Derby-winning” setup, while Tappan Street’s smooth 7 → 4½ → 1½ pattern puts him squarely in the mix. All five are strong contenders whose numbers suggest they are fast enough and still moving in the right direction.

However, as I mentioned, with the expected pace collapse, closers and grinders offer serious value. Sovereignty is a standout with paired ThoroGraph figures and a stride built for 10 furlongs. Burnham Square, who ran a massive figure in the Blue Grass despite a wide trip, is overlooked and proven over the Churchill surface. Grande exploded with a 0.5 ThoroGraph in the Wood and is lightly raced with upside, while Final Gambit and Chunk of Gold are sneaky longshot closers who could blow up the trifecta or superfecta at huge odds.

In terms of how I am betting, I will be betting on the favorite, Journalism. If he goes off at 3-1 or higher, I will be betting him to win, but I will also be betting him on top for exactas and trifectas. Last year, I had a barbell betting approach with Fierceness, with most of the money betting completely against him in exacta boxes, which had four of the top five, but I left out Mystik Dan. This year is an all-in focus on Journalism.

For which horses I will use underneath, below are each horse with pros and cons and details on the ones I think are worth focusing on underneath. Regardless of how you bet, enjoy Derby Day!

Jordi

DETAILED HORSE-BY-HORSE ANALYSIS

1. Citizen Bull (20-1) – Post 1

• Key Positives: Champion 2-year-old colt (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner) who has brilliant early speed​. When able to set the pace uncontested, he’s shown he can carry it around two turns (4 wins in 6 starts, all wire-to-wire) and earned triple-digit speed figures as a juvenile. Trainer Bob Baffert has a storied Derby record and this colt’s morning works suggest he’s in fine fettle (breezing sharp 5f moves indicating fitness).

• Key Negatives: His form at 3 is below his championship level – he faded to fourth in a five-horse Santa Anita Derby after being headed, finishing 9¾ lengths behind Journalism​. That flop raised serious distance doubts, as he folded when pressured at 1⅛ miles. Citizen Bull appears to be a one-dimensional speed horse who must secure an easy lead to produce his best. Post #1 is a significant negative: breaking from the rail in a 20-horse field could lead to a shuffle if he doesn’t outsprint everyone early (no Derby winner has come from post 1 since 1986)​. Furthermore, his pedigree (Into Mischief × Distorted Humor) leans toward middle distances – he has yet to prove he can finish strongly beyond 1¹/₁₆ miles.

• Projected Trip: Expect jockey Martin Garcia to gun Citizen Bull from the inside, aiming to clear the field into the first turn. He’ll likely set a fast pace or duel for the lead. Best case, he establishes a length or two advantage and tries to “bottom out” the field; worst case, he gets involved in a pace war and faces heavy pressure by the far turn. Either way, sustaining his speed through the finish will be challenging.

• Fair Win Odds: Fifteen-to-one (15/1). His accomplishments at 2 make him more decorated than a typical longshot, but given his regression and post draw, his true win chances are minimal without a pace collapse that somehow leaves him alone (an unlikely scenario). He is the one speed horse if he is able to slow the pace has the speed and brilliance to remain at the end. He was also helped by the Rodriguez scratch.

• Suggested Use: Underneath only. Citizen Bull is a candidate to fade late, but if he shakes loose even briefly, he could hang on for a minor award (third or fourth). Use him sparingly in superfectas, but he’s a risky win or exacta play in a race loaded with other speed. (Verdict: C)

2. Neoequos (30-1) – Post 2

• Key Positives: Displays sharp early speed – he set the pace in both the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby qualifiers​. Breaking from post 2, he should be prominently placed again. His connections (trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. and co-owner C2 Racing) are experienced Derby participants (they brought White Abarrio last year), and Neoequos has shown grittiness by fighting on even after setting fast fractions (he never quit entirely in those preps, holding on for third each time).

• Key Negatives: Neoequos has faltered in the final furlong of his prep races – an indication that 1¼ miles is beyond his scope​. In both the FOY and Florida Derby, he lost ground in the stretch after leading past the mile mark​. His pedigree supports this concern: sire Neolithic was a speedy router but never won a stakes (excelled at 9f or less), and the dam Bold Birdie was a pure sprinter​. The stamina deficit was evident as he tired to third in both prep tries at 1¹/₁₆ and 1⅛ miles. Additionally, he’s drawn inside other speed and tends to duel – a recipe for a pace collapse. Neoequos is also relatively exposed form-wise (7 starts) with no significant improvement in speed figures this spring, suggesting he may have plateaued.

• Projected Trip: Jockey Flavien Prat (picking up the mount) will likely send Neoequos hard from the gate to avoid getting pinched from both sides. He should vie for the early lead, possibly sparring with Citizen Bull to his inside and East Avenue and others to his outside. He’ll be in the front flight down the backstretch. Given his pattern, he figures to be among the leaders through 6 furlongs and then begin to fade approaching the quarter pole when the closers start to roll.

• Fair Win Odds: 80/1. He’s among the longest shots in the field to actually win – it would require an extreme pace scenario where he outlasts all other speed and somehow keeps the closers at bay (a very unlikely combination).

• Suggested Use: Toss from win and exacta considerations. At best, Neoequos could cling to a superfecta spot if several others fail to fire, but even that is doubtful. Given his distance limitations, I recommend against using him prominently. He’s an X for me – a pace factor likely to drop out when the real running begins.

3. Final Gambit (30-1) – Post 3

• Key Positives: This Juddmonte Farms colt brings top-notch late speed – he delivered a visually impressive charge to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks by 3½ lengths​. Notably, he overcame traffic in that race (bumped at the break, trailed early) and still won going away, indicating a strong closing kick and composure. Trainer Brad Cox is among the sport’s elite and has Derby experience (won in 2021 via DQ); he has him peaking at the right time, having steadily improved Final Gambit’s performance each start. The switch to dirt is a wild card, but his sire Not This Time has produced major dirt runners (e.g. Epicenter)​, so there’s reason to believe he can translate his form. His pedigree has some stamina influences (dam is by Tapit), and he should love a fast early pace to chase.

• Key Negatives: No dirt experience. All four of Final Gambit’s starts have come on synthetic or turf​. He must transfer his form to Churchill’s dirt – a surface change that has tripped up some past Turfway stars despite Rich Strike’s success last year. His running style is that of a deep closer, which on dirt can be trickier if he dislikes kickback or the tighter turns. On speed figures, his Jeff Ruby win was relatively slow compared to the top dirt preps (best Equibase Speed Figure of 96, below par for Derby winners)​. It’s possible that the synthetic surface flattered his late move. Additionally, in a 20-horse Derby field he risks falling far behind early and having too much to do late if the pace isn’t as hot as anticipated. In summary, he’s untested on dirt and against this caliber of competition.

• Projected Trip: Jockey Luan Machado knows him well and will likely take back immediately to let Final Gambit settle near the rear. From post 3, that means eating a lot of dirt – a new experience. Expect him to be among the last five going into the first turn, then attempt to angle out by mid-race. If he handles the surface, he’ll try to pass tiring horses in the far turn and launch his big rally through the lane. His best hope is that the leaders come back to him as he’s hitting his best stride at the eighth pole.

• Fair Win Odds: 50/1. While his raw talent as a closer is intriguing, the surface question mark is huge. We’d demand very long odds to endorse a win bet given he’s never raced on dirt; around 50-1 feels appropriate.

• Suggested Use: Underneath only (C). Final Gambit is a boom-or-bust longshot – I don’t see him winning, but he could spice up the back end of tris/supers if the pace melts and he handles the dirt. Include him in deeper exotics if you believe the late runners will swarm, but he’s not among my recommended win or exacta horses due to the uncertainty of the surface change.

5. American Promise (30-1) – Post 5

• Key Positives: A physically imposing son of Justify (2018 Triple Crown winner) with a stamina-rich pedigree (dam by Tapit)​, American Promise should have no problem with 1¼ miles. In fact, he just proved that by winning the 1⅛-mile “Virginia Derby” at Laurel in dominant fashion, drawing off by 7¾ lengths over Render Judgment​. That effort marked a significant turnaround – it was by far his best race, indicating this colt may be peaking at the right time. Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, a four-time Derby winner, knows how to get one ready for the big day, and he has been very bullish on this colt’s recent training. Notably, jockey Nik Juarez gave American Promise an aggressive ride in that Virginia Derby (engaging the leader early and taking over), and Juarez retains the mount for the Kentucky Derby​. That assertive style woke the colt up; he’ll likely be placed closer to the pace as a result. American Promise’s tactical speed is solid – he doesn’t need the lead, but can press it – and post 5 should allow him to secure a ground-saving spot behind the front-runners. With 9 races under his belt, he’s one of the most experienced in the field, and he’s battle-hardened from dancing many dances on the Derby trail.

• Key Negatives: Consistency has been an issue. Prior to that breakout win, American Promise had been a bit disappointing: he ran 6th (placed 7th) in the Southwest and a well-beaten 5th in the Risen Star​. Those sub-par efforts raise the possibility that his Virginia Derby win might have been flattered by weaker competition or track bias (it was a one-turn race against a modest field). Essentially, he has only one truly fast race on his résumé – if he regresses even slightly off that, he’s back in the pack. Additionally, he benefited from a relatively easy trip last out (pressing a longshot leader, then cruising when that rival stopped)​; replicating such a scenario in the Derby is unlikely with so many quality speed horses. There’s also a question of foot speed: even when ridden aggressively early, he’s not as quick as the pure sprinters here – he could find himself outfooted and forced to chase a hotter pace than he likes. At 9 starts, one could argue he’s had many chances and might simply lack the raw talent of the top contenders (his best speed figure is still a notch below the likes of Journalism or Sovereignty). Finally, jockey Nik Juarez will be riding in his first Derby – on such a big stage, inexperience could lead to a mistake (e.g., moving too soon or getting stuck inside).

• Projected Trip: Look for Juarez to attempt a similar tactic as last time: break alertly and put American Promise in the first tier behind the speed. From post 5, he should be able to tuck in around 4th–6th, perhaps two or three lengths off the lead, saving ground. If the front-runners go crazy fast, he might back off a bit more and settle mid-pack. He’ll aim to angle out on the far turn and grind into contention. In an ideal world, American Promise will be looming just behind the leaders at the quarter pole and use his stamina to stay on while some speed horses fade. Whether he has the turn of foot to sprint home with the true closers is the big test.

• Fair Win Odds: Thirty-to-one (30/1). His morning line reflects his mixed form; one can argue he’s worth that price given Lukas’s Derby magic and his last effort, but he doesn’t warrant much lower. We’d only consider him a win play at 30-1 or above, as a flyer.

• Suggested Use: Underneath in Tris/Supers (C). American Promise is a fringe contender – I don’t rate him among the likely winners, but he could definitely snag a minor award if he reproduces his last race. Use him in trifecta and superfecta slots (2nd, 3rd, 4th), especially if you envision a scenario where a few favorites fire and a few tire – he could be the one plodding along for a piece. As for exactas, only include him on the bottom (second place) in bigger tickets. His winning the Derby would still be a surprise, but a finish in the top half of the field is plausible.

6. Admire Daytona (30-1) – Post 6

• Key Positives: Represents the internationally accomplished Japan/UAE route, having just won the UAE Derby in Dubai (at 1 3/16 miles) in a gutsy performance​. In that race, Admire Daytona pressed the pace from the inside and turned back multiple challengers, prevailing by a nose​. That showed he has courage in a stretch battle. Jockey Christophe Lemaire has a long history with this colt (rode him in both Japan and Dubai) and is world-class; their familiarity can help overcome some Derby chaos. Admire Daytona’s road to Churchill included facing strong competition in Japan – notably, he was a close second to Luxor Café in a stakes race last fall​ – so he’s battle-tested. The pace setup could play to his advantage if he breaks well: from post 6, he’s inside most of the other speed horses, so he can secure a forward position without gunning from the far outside. If he manages to relax on or just off the lead, he’s shown he can carry his speed around turns and fight on. Additionally, Japanese horses have been increasingly dangerous on the world stage (Japan swept the UAE Derby/SA Derby last year, and had the Derby third in 2024), so one can’t dismiss his form line.

• Key Negatives: Distance and pedigree are big concerns despite his UAE Derby win. Admire Daytona is by Drefong (a champion U.S. sprinter) out of a mare by Shackleford (Preakness winner who tended to produce milers)​. That breeding screams speed, and it’s telling that his connections originally kept him to one-turn miles in Japan. In Dubai, he capitalized on a speed-favoring track and nearly hit his limit – he just held on after setting moderate fractions. Churchill Downs will present a stiffer stamina test, especially if the early pace here is faster than what he faced in UAE. Moreover, his UAE Derby was a hard race – he was all out in a prolonged drive​. The quick five-week turnaround shipping across the world raises the possibility of a bounce or fatigue. Trainer Yukihiro Kato even remarked that the UAE effort was taxing​; it’s a lot to ask for another peak performance so soon. Another negative: when he faced Luxor Café in Japan’s Hyacinth Stakes (1 mile) in February, he was beaten 3¼ lengths while finishing fourth​ – so against a Derby-level rival on dirt, he came up short. Tactically, while he has early speed, there’s plenty of pace drawn inside and outside of him; he could find himself in a dogfight early, which might sap his energy. Historically, UAE Derby winners have struggled in Louisville (no winner has hit the board yet), and Admire Daytona might unfortunately fit that pattern due to the demanding travel and race schedule.

• Projected Trip: From post 6, Lemaire will likely push Admire Daytona to attain a forward position – possibly going right to the lead or sitting second behind an inside speedball like Citizen Bull. He’s shown he can handle being inside, but Lemaire may angle him off the rail a bit to avoid getting pinned. We envision him in the front 3 through the first mile, perhaps on the outside hip of the pacesetter. If the pace is moderate, he’ll be right there turning for home, trying to replicate his UAE effort by digging in and fending off challengers. However, given expected faster fractions, he may start to feel the pressure by the quarter pole. It’s likely he reaches the top of the stretch still in contention and then has to deal with the swarm of closers. His team will hope he has one more fight in him to cling to a minor placing as others rally.

• Fair Win Odds: 50/1. While respected internationally, Admire Daytona’s win odds should be long due to the numerous hurdles (travel, pace, pedigree). We’d need well above his 30-1 ML to consider him a win bet – around 50-1 feels right given the uncertainties.

• Suggested Use: Toss for win (X). Admire Daytona is an outsider I find hard to recommend on top. The most optimistic scenario might see him hold on for a small share (4th or 5th) if a few favorites misfire. But more realistically, he’ll contribute to the pace and weaken. We are against using him in exactas given the distance and form-cycle worries. If you’re playing superfectas, you could include him in a bottom slot on a few tickets (he could be this year’s “fade to 6th” type). Overall, however, I advise saving your wagers for others with more staying power.

7. Luxor Café (15-1) – Post 7

• Key Positives: The top Japan Road qualifier, Luxor Café comes in on a four-race win streak and has been nothing short of dominant overseas​. In his final prep, the 1⅛-mile Fukuryu Stakes, he swept from mid-pack to win by five lengths in a hand ride​. That kind of push-button acceleration and decisive margin suggests a colt of real quality. He’s got an excellent pedigree for this race – by American Pharoah (who won the Derby and gets versatile progeny) out of a More Than Ready mare (who herself is out of a proven stamina family)​. This lineage showed on track: Luxor Café has improved with added distance, and his running style of pressing/stalking should translate well to the Derby. Importantly, he’s proven on dirt and around two turns (all his stakes wins in Japan were on dirt tracks at a mile or more). In terms of tactical speed, he’s better positioned than most closers – in Japan he often sat 2-3 lengths off the leader early​, so from post 7 under savvy rider João Moreira, he can likely work out a ground-saving trip in the second flight. Moreira is one of the world’s elite jockeys (though a Derby rookie), and is known for patience and timing – a good fit for Luxor’s style. Japan nearly won the Derby last year (3rd by a nose), and Luxor Café arguably has stronger credentials coming in. He’s beaten Admire Daytona (by a nose in November) and finished ahead of him again in February; he’s been the clear standout in Japan’s crop. If he brings his A-game, he has the talent to contend for the win, not just hit the board​.

• Key Negatives: The class and environment jump remains a question. Luxor Café has been beating up on Japan-based 3-year-olds – undeniably improving ones, but the caliber of competition is still a notch below the U.S. Grade 1 level. The fractions in his races were relatively soft, allowing for strong finishes; Churchill’s Derby pace could put him in unfamiliar territory. He’s also never faced a field nearly this large (his largest field was 13 in the Fukuryu), so navigating kickback and traffic will be new variables. Moreira’s lack of Churchill experience is a minor concern – the first turn at Churchill can be tricky – and he must avoid getting shuffled back if the inside horses come out. Another note: While he’s won at 9f, the Derby’s 10f still looms as a test, especially coming off a top effort only 5 weeks ago (though spacing should be fine). One could argue that at 15-1, he’s not a screaming bargain given no Japan-based horse has yet won the Derby (the “Japan factor” is no secret to bettors now). Also, his best races have seen him in relatively clear running – we haven’t seen him have to bull his way through horses. If he’s buried inside or between horses (likely at some stage from post 7), will he show the same punch? It’s a minor unknown. Lastly, the two main question marks the pundits raise: travel fatigue (coming from Japan to UAE to the U.S. in a few months) and that he hasn’t raced outside of Japan’s circuit – but given his stable (Noriyuki Hori is top-class) and his local works at Churchill being reported strong, these may not be significant issues.

• Projected Trip: From gate 7, expect Luxor Café to break alertly and settle in the front half of the pack, perhaps 5-7 lengths off the lead. He’s drawn outside the pure speeds, so Moreira can watch the scramble inside and choose to tuck in just behind them. He might end up just behind horses like Rodriguez and American Promise, somewhere mid-pack along the rail or one off. Ideally, Moreira will tip him out on the backstretch or approaching the far turn to have clear sight of the leaders. Look for Luxor to unleash his move entering the stretch – if the setup is right, he’ll be passing tiring speed horses and aiming to outkick the U.S. closers. He could very well be one of those charging late in the final furlong. The key will be to find daylight at the right time; if he does, he has the engine to be a factor.

• Fair Win Odds: 12/1. His morning line of 15-1 is reasonable, but we think anything in the teens offers value for a horse with his international record. We’d bet him down to ~12-1 as a win play.

• Suggested Use: Use in Exactas and as Value B. I consider Luxor Café a strong “sleeper” contender – a B-tier horse with A-tier upside. Include him in all exotic wagers: exactas, trifectas (especially second and third positions, and even on top in a few contrarian tickets). In multi-race bets, he’s an excellent value inclusion. While asking him to win without U.S. prep experience is tall, I wouldn’t be shocked if he hits the board or even wins with a perfect trip. His high cruising speed and late kick make him a live longshot worth using.

8. Journalism (3-1) – Post 8

• Key Positives: The morning-line favorite and deservedly so – Journalism has won 3 straight stakes (incl. the Santa Anita Derby) and has never missed the trifecta in five starts​. He checks every box: tactical speed, finishing power, pedigree, and professionalism. In the Santa Anita Derby, he showed a new dimension by overcoming adversity – he was briefly bottled up mid-race, yet he rallied strongly once clear to win going away by ¾ length​. That indicates he can handle traffic and has the will to win. His speed figures are among the best in the field, and he’s remarkably consistent (no “bounce” pattern evident – he’s basically paired fast numbers this spring)​. Pedigree-wise, being by Curlin out of Mopotism (by Uncle Mo) screams stamina – Curlin progeny relish 10 furlongs and Mopotism was a Grade-1-quality router​. Trainer Mike McCarthy, a former Pletcher assistant, already has a Breeders’ Cup win and won the Preakness in 2021; he’s known for careful conditioning, and he’s been pointing Journalism specifically to peak on Derby day. Jockey Umberto Rispoli gets along with this colt superbly, placing him perfectly just off the pace in California. From post 8, Journalism should get a dream trip – he’s drawn outside most of the pure speeds, allowing Rispoli to sit in the second flight, perhaps 4-5 lengths off the lead. With several front-runners likely to tire, Journalism can pounce turning for home. He’s shown he can accelerate quickly when asked and sustain that run to the wire (his final furlong in the SA Derby was solid ~12.3s​. Critically, he appears very tractable and responsive to his rider – a major asset in a chaotic 20-horse field​. In summary, his form is rock-solid, and he arguably has no glaring weakness that others can exploit​.

• Key Negatives: The only knocks are fairly minor or hypothetical. One could point out that he’s been running in small fields in California (4-5 horses), so the massive Derby field presents a new challenge – we haven’t seen him, for instance, have to weave through 10 horses. However, he did face traffic in a small field (which can be just as tricky) and handled it​, so that bodes well. Another potential concern: pace dependency – as a stalker, he might be a tad pace neutral (neither need-the-lead nor deep closer). In an oddly run race, could he get caught in between – e.g., if a few surprising horses don’t go forward and the pace is slower, will he inherit the lead sooner than ideal? That scenario seems unlikely given all the speed signed on. Additionally, some might note he’s yet to run outside California – shipping can affect some horses – but he’s been training sharply at Churchill since arriving (reports of a strong 5f breeze). One analytical concern: his best Beyer Speed Figure (98) is good but not a standout historically; a few others have run similarly fast. But given likely pace and trip, he can absolutely improve on that. If we nitpick, his margin of victory in preps wasn’t huge (3/4 length in SA Derby, neck in San Felipe), implying he does just what is needed – but that’s often just efficient rather than a flaw. In essence, any negatives are minor quibbles or theoretical. Perhaps the weight of favoritism and a 19-horse cavalry charge are his biggest hurdles – things beyond his control.

• Projected Trip: Breaking from post 8, Journalism should settle in the second wave of horses. Look for him to be perhaps 6th–8th early, about 4-6 lengths behind the flying leaders. Rispoli will aim to keep him in the clear – possibly two or three wide, just off the flanks of horses like Rodriguez or Luxor Café. With his tactical gears, Journalism can move when he chooses; expect Rispoli to begin advancing on the far turn if the leaders are coming back. He’ll likely angle out into the five-path turning for home to unleash his run. If he gets that clear shot, he has the turn of foot to strike the front by midstretch. From there, it’s a matter of holding off the deep closers. Given his stamina and determination, he’s a strong bet to be right there at the finish.

• Fair Win Odds: 3/1. He’s a deserving favorite, but this is a deep field. We’d consider 7-2 or higher as value on him. At anything shorter (say 5/2 or 3/1), he’s still the horse to beat but not an overlay. His true win probability is in the 25-30% range, so 3-1 to 1 is fair.

• Suggested Use: Top choice (A). I am all-in on Journalism as a win contender. His performance in the Los Alomitos Futurity gave me chills watching thinking as a two-year old he could be a Triple Crown Winner. Use him prominently in all wagers – he’s a must-have on Pick 4/Pick 5 tickets, and a solid key in exactas/trifectas. Betting-wise, you can key him on top of exotic tickets and also box him with other top contenders. His consistency makes him a reliable horse to build wagers around. Barring bad racing luck, he should be fighting for the win at the wire.

9. Burnham Square (12-1) – Post 9

• Key Positives: The Blue Grass Stakes winner, Burnham Square has been a model of consistency: 6 starts, 3 wins, 2 close seconds, and 1 fourth (beaten under a length)​. He has never run a bad race and keeps improving gradually. As a closer, he offers one of the field’s strongest late kicks – he rallied from last in a 7-horse field to nab the Blue Grass by a nose​. In doing so, he ran one of the fastest final fractions of any Derby prep (despite a slow overall time)​, suggesting he can really finish when pace allows. His pedigree hints he’ll handle 10 furlongs: by Liam’s Map (who, though known for miler speed, has sired routers) out of a Scat Daddy mare, and he’s a half-brother to Linda’s Gift (a stakes router). Importantly, Burnham Square is a Churchill Downs lover: he broke his maiden at Churchill convincingly last fall and trained there all winter. He’ll also reunite with jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., who knows Churchill’s surface intimately and just won last year’s Derby on a closer (Mystik Dan via photo)​. Tactically, Burnham benefits from the pace scenario – a fast pace gives him the setup he craves. Post 9 is fine for a horse who drops back; he can tuck in early and avoid losing ground. He has shown he doesn’t mind weaving through traffic. Also noteworthy: he’s a gelded horse, which often brings focus and consistency – and indeed, Burnham is all about reliability. If the race turns into a stamina test and jockey Hernandez times the move right, Burnham Square is exactly the kind of relentless closer who can grind his way into the exacta at juicy odds.

• Key Negatives: In terms of speed figures, Burnham Square is just a step below the top tier. The Blue Grass came back a bit slow (final time was on the slower side)​, and although he earned competitive figures from it (thanks to the race flow), he hasn’t yet hit a truly fast number that screams Derby winner. Some might say he only beat six horses in the Blue Grass (a small field), and he barely did so (a nose win)​ – he’ll face 19 rivals now, a much more crowded lane for a deep closer. There’s a mild concern about him possibly flattening out if he has to move wide: in the Fountain of Youth, he finished fourth when he had to swing wide, albeit only beaten a length for second in a race won by Sovereignty​. So, while not really a “bad” race, it shows he can occasionally leave himself too much to do. Another consideration: historically, Blue Grass winners have had mixed success in the Derby, and his come-from-behind style will always require racing luck (the right pace and no traffic snarls). His early lack of speed means he could fall 15+ lengths behind – and a few closers in here (Sandman, Sovereignty) might have a slightly sharper turn of foot. Essentially, he might have to outkick a number of horses with similar styles who have also been running slightly faster final quarters. Also, it’s worth noting that while Hernandez won last year, Burnham is not quite the powerhouse that Mystik Dan was – he’s a notch below that level on paper. Lastly, Burnham had a fairly hard race in the Blue Grass (driving finish) and will be coming back in four weeks – he’s done that turnaround successfully before, but it’s always a question if a career-best effort took something out of him.

• Projected Trip: Burnham Square will likely drop back shortly after the break, settling toward the rear third of the field. From post 9, Hernandez can slide over to the rail or just one off to save ground. Expect Burnham to be maybe 15th or so down the backstretch, unhurried, possibly a dozen lengths behind. His task will be to pick his way through traffic as the field bunches on the far turn. Ideally, Hernandez will follow a horse like Sandman or Sovereignty who’s starting a move, to drag him into contention. Coming into the stretch, Burnham will angle out (likely 5-6 wide) to launch his sustained run. If the leaders are tiring and closers fan out, he’ll need to thread through or go around – but his experience navigating in Florida and Kentucky so far suggests he’s not afraid to go between horses. Look for Burnham to be passing horses rapidly in the final furlong; the only question is how many lengths back he’ll be when he starts that kick, and whether it’s enough to catch the very top choices.

• Fair Win Odds: 20/1. At 15-1 ML, he’s borderline value; given the depth of closers here, we’d want closer to 20-1 to bet him to win (which he might well be by post time). He’s roughly the 5th-6th choice on paper for us, so a 5% chance to win feels right.

• Suggested Use: Use underneath and as a value exacta key (B). Burnham Square is a must-use in trifectas and superfectas – his consistency means he’s very likely to be running on late for a piece. I like him especially in the 3rd and 4th slots. In exactas, consider using him in the second position behind some of the A’s – e.g., Journalism/Burnham, Sovereignty/Burnham could pay nicely. He can also be part of an exacta box of mid-priced closers (Burnham with Sandman, Sovereignty, etc.) if you’re playing against the speed horses. As a win pick, he’s an intriguing longshot if you’re shopping for one beyond the obvious – but wI see him more as a exotics player who could very well clunk up into the top three without actually winning.

11. Flying Mohawk (30-1) – Post 11

• Key Positives: Flying Mohawk brings an unconventional profile to the Derby. He earned his spot by closing for second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks on Turfway’s all-weather track​. In that race, he showed impressive late speed, coming from 11th of 12 to pick off all but Final Gambit​. That strong finish suggests he has stamina and closing capability – qualities you want in the Derby. In fact, he had won two races prior on turf in open-length fashion, so he’s proven at route distances (those wins were at 8½ furlongs on grass). His pedigree (by Karakontie out of a Twirling Candy mare) actually leans turf/all-weather, which is why he’s thrived on those surfaces. One could view that as a plus in terms of foundation – turf routes often require a big move and sustained run, which he has shown. Trainer Whit Beckman is a former Chad Brown assistant, adept at turf/synth horses, and his decision to give Flying Mohawk a shot on dirt here suggests some confidence that the horse can handle it. At 30-1, he is one of the longest shots in the field, but he offers a deep closing style that could pick up pieces if the pace melts (think of horses like Golden Soul or Tale of Verve in recent years finishing second at huge odds when closers dominated the exotics). Notably, he’s fresh – only one start this year (the Jeff Ruby), so he’s lightly raced in 2025 and could still have a forward move in him. Additionally, he’s been training over Churchill’s dirt for a few weeks, including a bullet 5f work at Turfway before shipping – his connections have done what they can to prepare him for the surface change. And one more angle: his owner partnerships (Two Eight Racing, Berry Family, Kaleta Racing) are smaller outfits who no doubt relish this underdog role – sometimes these “nothing to lose” horses can run with surprising freedom.

• Key Negatives: The glaring issue is dirt inexperience. Flying Mohawk has never raced on dirt, and his pedigree and past performances all point to him preferring turf/synthetic. This makes him a major wildcard – historically, horses trying dirt for the first time in the Derby do not fare well. He’s essentially trying to do what Animal Kingdom did in 2011 (win Derby off Turfway prep with no dirt starts), but Animal Kingdom was arguably more accomplished and bred for dirt on top. Karakontie is a French-bred who won the Breeders’ Cup Mile on turf; Twirling Candy’s offspring can handle dirt but often excel on turf too. So there’s a good chance Flying Mohawk simply may not be as effective on the Churchill surface (he could struggle with kickback from 19 horses as well). Also, he’s one of the slower horses on paper – his best synthetic speed figures are significantly lower than what the top dirt horses have run (his Equibase Speed Figure of 92 in the Jeff Ruby is well below par). He closed well at Turfway, but that race shape (extreme pace collapse) may have flattered him​. Indeed, Final Gambit, another closer, blew by the field and Mohawk basically followed in his wake – he never got close to Final Gambit (3½ lengths behind)​. That raises the concern that against even stronger closers on dirt, he might not threaten. Another factor: inexperience in crowds – his best runs came from far back in cleaner trips on turf/synth. In the Derby, he’ll have a face full of dirt and lots of horses around. How will he react? Jockey Joseph Ramos is also making his Derby debut, which can be intimidating. The colt’s running style of dropping far out of it could leave him with too much to do if the pace is only moderate or if he doesn’t handle the dirt kickback early and falls even farther back than usual. Essentially, a lot needs to go right (dirt aptitude, blistering pace, weaving through traffic) for Flying Mohawk to even hit the board, let alone win. The odds reflect that – he’s one of the longest shots and it’s justified.

• Projected Trip: Breaking from post 11, Flying Mohawk will likely be eased toward the rear immediately. Expect him to drop toward the inside behind the mid-pack group – he could be 18th or 19th early, only ahead of perhaps Render Judgment. Ramos will want to save ground on the first turn and hope to pick off a few tiring horses by the far turn. As they approach the final turn, he’ll likely swing out (maybe 8-10 wide) to try to launch that big sustained rally in the clear (less kickback out wide). If the leaders come back en masse, Flying Mohawk will attempt to pass the collapsing pace-setters and pick up pieces in the stretch. Realistically, he could pass a bunch of leg-weary horses to maybe finish mid-pack. A finish in the superfecta would require a near-perfect setup: he’d need to be closer than usual (maybe in 15th instead of 19th at halfway) and really relish the dirt late. The bottom line – you’ll likely see him far back early and closing late, but probably not fast enough to threaten the main contenders.

• Fair Win Odds: 99/1. He’s listed at 30-1 ML, but objectively his win chances are extremely slim (well under 1%). He should be one of the true longshots on the tote, and rightfully so – we’d only consider him if he crept toward 100-1, and even then only as a sentimental flyer.

• Suggested Use: Toss from exotics (X). As much as I appreciate the story and the closing kick he displayed, Flying Mohawk is a hard toss for win, place, show. I do not recommend using him in any key slots. If you’re playing superfectas and want to cover absolute chaos, you could throw him in the 4th-place spot on a few tickets – that’s the extent of it. Essentially, unless the track oddly favors deep closers and we have a meltdown of epic proportions, his likely outcome is passing a few tired rivals for perhaps 7th-10th. In summary, we are rooting for the “little guy,” but I can’t endorse him as a betting prospect in this spot.

12. East Avenue (20-1) – Post 12

• Key Positives: East Avenue nearly pulled off an 11-1 wire-to-wire shocker in the Blue Grass Stakes, leading until the final stride when he was nipped by Burnham Square​. That runner-up effort was a sharp turnaround from a poor race prior, indicating he’s back in form at the right time. Notably, he set a solid pace in the Blue Grass and battled on tenaciously when challenged – a display of grit that bodes well for a tough race like the Derby​. He is one of the fastest early horses in this field (broke alertly and opened up in 23, 47 in the Blue Grass), so despite an outside post, he has the speed to outrun many and cross over. His pedigree is sterling: by Medaglia d’Oro (sire of Belmont winner Elate, etc.) out of a Ghostzapper mare, he’s actually a half-brother to Cody’s Wish (2022 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner & 2023 Horse of the Year)​. That’s a ”stamina over speed” pedigree – Ghostzapper won the BC Classic, and Medaglia d’Oro progeny often excel at classic distances. So even though he’s shown sprinty speed, he has a genetic right to stay the trip. Importantly, his Blue Grass performance hinted he can indeed handle 9f, just getting nailed late – so 10f isn’t outlandish if he settles slightly. Trainer Brendan Walsh (also trains Cody’s Wish) is highly capable and tweaked some things to get East Avenue back on track (after a dismal Risen Star, they regrouped). Jockey Manny Franco picks up the mount – Franco is a strong gate rider known for front-running wins (he rode Tiz the Law to multiple Grade 1 wins). Don’t be surprised if Franco hustles aggressively to clear the field from post 12 and attempt another front-running theft. If East Avenue shakes loose, his foes might underestimate him again. It’s also worth mentioning that he had a legitimate excuse for his one bad race: in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he nearly fell at the start (stumbled badly)​, and in the Risen Star, he had no excuse and ran 10th​ – that was puzzling, but given his rebound at Keeneland, one can draw a line through it as an anomaly. In sum, he’s a live longshot with speed and breeding, and we’ve seen Derby upsets from lone speed types before.

• Key Negatives: The question is whether he can withstand much faster early fractions and far more pressure in the Derby. In the Blue Grass, he was loose with moderate splits (23.3, 47.3, 1:12.4) and only faced mild pressure late​. On Derby Day, horses like Citizen Bull, Neoequos, and even Rodriguez/Admire could all vie for the front – East Avenue won’t have an easy time getting a clear lead without expending serious energy. If he gets into a pace duel, his late weakness might be exposed again (he’s been caught at the end in two of his last three). Also, while his pedigree suggests stamina, his racing style hasn’t yet proven he can run a truly fast final furlong – Burnham Square ran him down from last in a slow final time, which suggests East Avenue came home slowly. If he’s softened at all by pace, he could fade badly in the stretch. His Risen Star flop (beaten 17 lengths) remains a bit of a mystery – it raises consistency concerns. Perhaps he disliked the Fair Grounds track or the two-turn dynamics that day, but it means he’s not bulletproof. The Derby’s 1¼ miles with a cavalry of closers might be simply beyond his scope if he is chased through, say, 1:10 for 3/4. Another challenge: breaking from post 12, he’ll have to use that speed right away; if he doesn’t clear by the turn, he risks being hung wide in a speed duel – a near-certain recipe for failure. And historically, pacesetters in the Derby rarely hold on unless they get extremely favorable setups (the last wire-to-wire winner was War Emblem in 2002). East Avenue’s speed figures are respectable (mid-90s Beyers) but still a touch below the best – he needs a forward move and favorable race shape. Finally, Manny Franco is new to him and might not know his quirks (he’s had different jockeys almost every race); synchronization might be an issue under Derby pressure.

• Projected Trip: Franco likely guns East Avenue from post 12 with intent to cross over the inside speeds. He’ll need to break sharply and probably will; the first 200 yards are crucial. We foresee East Avenue vying for the lead into the first turn – perhaps he gets it outright and angles down to the rail in front of Citizen Bull and Neoequos. If he can do so without a suicidal pace, he might lead for six or seven furlongs. More realistically, he could be head-and-head with someone like Rodriguez or Citizen Bull through strong fractions. Best case: he’s the primary front-runner entering the stretch, trying to steal a few lengths on the field. Worst case: he’s cooked by the mile and backing up rapidly. Our projection is he’ll be in front for at least half the race, then start to feel the heat by the far turn when the heavy hitters roll. He could still be clinging to a top-3 spot at the eighth pole before the deep closers overtake him.

• Fair Win Odds: 30/1. He’s listed at 20-1, but we’d demand more given the likely pace pressure. About 30-1 seems fair for his win probability. He’s a feast-or-famine type longshot.

• Suggested Use: Underneath (C). I don’t view East Avenue as a win candidate unless the track is playing extremely kind to speed. However, he is usable in exotic wagers. Consider him for the bottom of trifectas or superfectas, especially if you envision a scenario where a speed horse hangs on for a minor award. For example, he could hang around for third if a lot of late runners pass him but some mid-pack horses fall away. In exactas, it’s hard to imagine him holding second, but if you’re playing a big ticket, you might include something like Journalism over East Avenue as a flyer. Overall, I categorize him as C – an underneath longshot. If you’re spreading, you might throw a couple dollars on him to win at monster odds just in case he channels War Emblem. Otherwise, limit him to the back-end of exotics.

13. Publisher (20-1) – Post 13

• Key Positives: Publisher has the distinction of being the only maiden in the field, but he earned his spot by consistently picking up minor awards on the Derby trail. Trained by Steve Asmussen, he’s a late-running closer who finally put things together in the Arkansas Derby, finishing a clear second behind Sandman​. In that race, he made a solid stretch run (following Sandman through) to pass horses and secure the placing – a sign that his form is improving at the right time. In fact, the Arkansas Derby was a career-best effort for him speed-figure-wise. The pace in that race wasn’t insanely fast, so Publisher showed he can close into a moderate tempo. His pedigree is blue-blooded: by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah out of a Proud Citizen mare. American Pharoah’s progeny have already won the Belmont and other 10f races, and Proud Citizen mares have produced Derby winner Country House (2019 via DQ) and others – so stamina is not an issue. If anything, Publisher seems to be an out-and-out grinder who will keep coming late as others tire. Asmussen, despite never having won the Derby, is a Hall of Famer who knows how to get horses to peak in big races – he wouldn’t run this horse if he didn’t think he could make an impact. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. staying aboard is a plus – Irad chose to ride him in Arkansas and gave him a smart, ground-saving trip to get second​. Ortiz is one of the best at working out trips from off the pace and is as strong as anyone in the stretch duel. Post 13 is fine for a closer; he can drop in behind the traffic and follow the flow. A fast pace up front will only enhance Publisher’s chances to clunk up. He’s a durable, experienced runner (7 starts) who has been on the board in 5 of those (0-2-3 record)​americasbestracing.net – he always manages to get a piece of it. In a Derby that might fall apart late, he’s exactly the type to pass the tired speed and pick up a check. And wouldn’t it be something if Asmussen’s elusive Derby win came with a maiden? It’s a quirky story, but stranger things have happened.

• Key Negatives: It’s hard to overlook the fact that he’s never actually won a race​. Only three maidens have ever won the Derby (the last was in 1933), and Publisher will be attempting to break a 90-year drought​. The reason maidens don’t win is usually because they lack that killer instinct or raw talent – and Publisher, for all his consistency, has never shown a winning punch. In seven starts, he’s never even gotten within 1½ lengths of victory​ (that was his closest margin, in a maiden race where he was second to American Promise). He tends to grind along for minor awards rather than accelerating to win. In the Derby, that likely means he’s aiming for a minor award at best again. His speed figures, while improved, are still a notch below the top closers – for instance, Sandman outkicked him by 2½ lengths in Arkansas and appeared to have more in the tank​. Publisher basically followed Sandman’s move but couldn’t keep up late. Thus, if the Sandmans and Sovereigntys and Burnhams fire their best, Publisher might be running for 4th or 5th at absolute best. Another concern: he had a relatively clean trip in Arkansas (saving ground most of the way) – in a 20-horse Derby he may not get such a charmed inside run. Navigating through traffic is a new challenge for him, though Irad helps mitigate that. Also, while he’s been mostly reliable, he did have one off-the-board finish (7th in Southwest, placed 6th via DQ) after some trouble – so he’s not immune to a dull effort if things go wrong. Frankly, he has a bit of the “plodder” profile – speed-challenged and dependent on an absolute collapse up front. It’s telling that even Asmussen has tempered expectations, noting it’s “hard to see him breaking through in the Derby” given he hasn’t yet won​. He’ll need several horses to underperform and the race to fall apart to sniff the win.

• Projected Trip: From post 13, expect Ortiz to take Publisher straight toward the rail after the break, settling near the back of the pack. He doesn’t have the speed to mix it up early, so he’ll likely be somewhere around 15th place in the early going. The plan will be to save ground as much as possible – perhaps hugging the rail in the backstretch. Ortiz will try to inch him forward on the far turn as the field bunches. We might see Publisher picking his way through inside, then angling out in mid-stretch for a clear lane. Essentially, envision him as one of the last runners to appear in the frame, plugging away and passing tired rivals. He could be one of those horses who suddenly shows up in 5th or 6th at the wire after not being visible on the TV broadcast until late. If a few top closers find trouble or flatten out, Publisher might sneak into 3rd or 4th. A scenario where he wins would require a pace meltdown of epic proportions and most of the key contenders encountering issues – not impossible, but highly improbable.

• Fair Win Odds: 50/1. He’s 20-1 on the ML which is way too short given the historical and practical hurdles. He probably should be closer to the longest shots on the board in win probability. We’d price him around 50-1 or even higher for victory (reflecting <2% chance to win).

• Suggested Use: Underneath only (C). I can’t endorse Publisher as a win bet – the “maiden curse” and his known limitations make that a bridge too far. However, he is definitely a horse to use in the third or fourth slot of supers and tris. He’s the prototype of a closer who could clunk up for a minor award (maybe picking up the pieces for 4th at big odds, similar to how Golden Soul was 2nd at 34-1 in 2013 or Master of Hounds 5th at big odds in 2011). So include him at the bottom of vertical exotics. In exactas, you might throw him in second on a few saver tickets if you key a favorite on top and want a bomb underneath. Asmussen still seeks his Derby – while it’s unlikely this is the horse to do it, I wouldn’t be shocked to hear Publisher’s name in the stretch for a small slice.

14. Tiztastic (20-1) – Post 14

• Key Positives: Tiztastic enters off a breakthrough victory in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, where he rallied from well off the pace and won going away by 2½ lengths. That was a career-best performance in the most important prep of his campaign, indicating an ascending form cycle. He also earned a strong 100 Beyer in that effort, putting him in the conversation on speed figures. What’s notable is how he won: under Joel Rosario, he saved ground, then sliced through and powered clear – showing push-button acceleration and stamina at 1 3/16 miles​. Rosario stays aboard for the Derby, a huge plus given his Hall of Fame credentials and the rapport they clearly developed (Rosario timed the ride perfectly, making a decisive inside move). Tiztastic’s pedigree screams classic distance: by Tiz the Law (Belmont Stakes winner at 1½ miles) out of a Tapit mare​. True to that, he looked like a horse crying out for more ground earlier in the season – he was third in the Southwest and a flat fifth in the Rebel, but given more distance in the LA Derby, he shined​. It’s quite possible he’s now coming into peak condition (3rd start of the form cycle) and will relish the Derby’s 10 furlongs even more. Another positive angle: he’s co-owned by Winchell Thoroughbreds and the Coolmore partners​ – serious outfits who know what it takes to win big races; this colt has been campaigned ambitiously and rewarded them by delivering when it counted. Trainer Steve Asmussen, again looking for a Derby win, has compared Tiztastic’s steady development to some of his late-blooming stars of the past. He’s a robust colt who handled the rigors of 8 starts without regressing. Mentally, he’s overcome adversity too – in the LA Derby he negotiated mild traffic and handled it​. Post 14 can be a good spot for closers – he’s first gate in the auxiliary, meaning a little space, and he can drop in behind easily. With so much pace, Tiztastic should have ample speed to set up his late rally. In summary, he has the look of a horse figuring it out at the right time: a pedigree match for 1¼ miles, a top jockey, and a last-race performance that would put him in the mix if repeated.

• Key Negatives: One could question whether his Louisiana Derby win was somewhat trip-aided. He benefitted from a pace meltdown (the early fractions were hot, and closers swept the race)​. He also got a dream inside run under Rosario, slipping through while others fanned wide​. In the Kentucky Derby, replicating that rail trip against a larger, tougher field is far from guaranteed. Also, Fair Grounds and Churchill can be different beasts – occasionally horses thriving on the long Fair Grounds stretch struggle on Churchill’s surface (though Tiztastic did break his maiden at Churchill on turf last summer). There’s also a subtle concern: until the LA Derby, he had never won on dirt (his 2 prior wins were on turf at 2). It took a while for him to put it all together; what if that was an outlier “peak” and he reacts negatively with only 5 weeks between big efforts? The bounce factor is mild but worth noting – his TG sheets jumped forward in LA Derby, could he regress slightly off such a new top? If he does, he might land in the bottom of super rather than contend for win. Another thing: in the Rebel Stakes, he was somewhat flat despite a fair setup (he finished 5th)​. Asmussen admitted they were perplexed by that run. He seemed to figure it out next time, but it shows he’s not bulletproof. And while his owners are powerhouse, Asmussen’s Derby luck is infamously poor – some will fade his horses on that stat alone (though that’s not a reason I weigh heavily). From a pace scenario, one potential negative: if the track comes up speed-favoring or the pace is slower than expected, closers like Tiztastic could be left with too much to do. Also, Tiztastic is a closer who sometimes took a while to get going – he can’t spot a field like this too much ground. He and Publisher have similar deep styles; Tiztastic has shown a higher turn of foot but also earlier in the year he lacked urgency. If Rosario rides him too cool and the leaders get brave, he might run out of real estate.

• Projected Trip: From the outside of the main gate (post 14 is last stall of gate

• Projected Trip: The plan will be similar to his Louisiana Derby: drop well back early and save ground. From post 14 (first in auxiliary gate), Rosario can tuck in behind the main pack before the first turn. Tiztastic will likely be among the last 4-5 horses for the first mile. With many front-runners, he should get a favorable pace to run at. Rosario will try to navigate through traffic on the far turn – possibly slicing inside horses as he did at Fair Ground​. Expect to see Tiztastic angling out in the stretch and unleashing a steady late charge. If the pace is indeed hot, he’ll be passing spent rivals in the lane. The key will be Rosario’s timing and finding a seam; if he sees daylight, Tiztastic will be one of those flying late.

• Fair Win Odds: 15/1. His true chances are higher than his 20-1 morning line implies, given his new peak figure and pedigree. We’d consider him fair value around 15-1 or 18-1. Anything above 20-1 would be generous for a last-out G2 winner with his credentials.

• Suggested Use: Underneath (solid C, borderline B). Tiztastic is a prime exotics player. I recommend using him in trifectas and superfectas – he’s very capable of crashing the board late. As a win bet, he’s a bit of a reach (he’ll need a perfect pace meltdown scenario to actually win), but if you’re playing vertical wagers, include him in your exacta/trifecta boxes with the top choices. In multi-race bets, consider him a backup “saver” if you expect a pace collapse. In summary, I see him as a likely closer to grab a piece, even if outright victory might be a stretch without significant help. (Verdict: C tier, with upside.)

15. Render Judgment (30-1) – Post 15

• Key Positives: This Kenny McPeek trainee only made the field after another horse scratche​, but he’s a hard-trying colt with a series of decent efforts in Derby preps. He’s hit the board in multiple races (1 win, 2 seconds, 1 third in 7 starts) and has shown late-running ability at shorter distances. Render Judgment’s pedigree (Blame × Commissioner mare) is stamina-rich – Blame won the 10f Breeders’ Cup Classic, and Commissioner was runner-up in the Belmont – so longer distances suit him. Indeed, he ran on late for second in the 1⅛-mile “Virginia Derby” behind American Promis​e, albeit a distant second. McPeek shockingly won last year’s Derby with a longshot closer (Mystik Dan), so he knows how to plot an upset with this running style. Jockey Julien Leparoux is experienced and tends to give patient rides from off the pace. Drawn in the first stall of the auxiliary gate (post 15), Render Judgment should drop in and save ground early. If the race falls apart, he could clunk along for a minor award – he’s the type who often picks up pieces (top-five finishes in 4 of 5 prep tries). Given the likely fast pace, he’ll have plenty of tiring targets to pass in the stretch.

• Key Negatives: Simply put, he lacks the class and speed of the main contenders. His best finish in a prep was a well-beaten second (7¾ lengths behind American Promise in that one-turn VA Derby​, and his other placings were similarly distant. On figures, he’s near the bottom of this field – he’s consistently run slower final times and lower speed figures (mid-80s Beyers) that are far off what it normally takes to hit the board in a Derby. Render Judgment has also been beaten at least four lengths in every stakes try, highlighting that he’s been outclassed by the better 3-year-olds​. In the Arkansas Derby, for instance, he was a non-threatening fifth (beaten 19 lengths) behind horses like Sandman and Publishe​. His late-running style produces mild rallies but nothing explosive; he tends to pass tired horses without seriously menacing the winners. Additionally, he’s quite inexperienced against large fields – most of his races had 7-9 runners. Navigating 20 horses could overwhelm him, especially since he lacks a strong turn of foot to maneuver out of tight spots. Trainer McPeek himself has tempered expectations, saying Render Judgment’s best hope is maybe finishing “in the top half” given his slower prep​. Ultimately, he appears a cut below on talent – if he couldn’t crack the superfecta at Turfway or Oaklawn, it’s hard to see him doing so here.

• Projected Trip: From post 15, Leparoux will likely take back immediately and angle toward the rail to save ground. Render Judgment will be among the last few early, possibly 18th-20th down the backstretch. He’ll hope to creep closer as the field bunches on the far turn, then swing out a bit for a clear lane in the stretch. Expect to see him passing struggling horses in the final furlong, but likely still behind the main wave of closers. A scenario for him hitting the superfecta would involve an utter collapse of many higher-rated horses, allowing him to inherit a fourth-place finish by attrition. More realistically, he’ll be running on late but finish in the second half of the field.

• Fair Win Odds: 99/1. He’s arguably the longest shot in the field to win; I’d peg him at near 100-1 true odds. His 30-1 ML reflects optimism from the connections making the race, but on form he should be one of the rank outsiders.

• Suggested Use: Toss (X). I do not recommend using Render Judgment in any wagers other than perhaps a symbolic $1 superfecta inclusion on the bottom if you’re playing a huge ticket. He projects to be overmatched and is a candidate to finish in the back quarter of the field. While he’s a likable hard-try colt, the Derby appears beyond his scope. Feel free to leave him off tickets.

16. Coal Battle (30-1) – Post 16

• Key Positives: A true “Cinderella story,” Coal Battle comes from the lesser-known barn of Lonnie Briley and has a blue-collar background, yet he earned his way here with a win in the Rebel Stakes (50-point race) and a third in the Arkansas Derb​y. He’s a versatile, gritty runner who has 5 wins in 8 starts – more victories than any horse in this fiel​d. In the Rebel (1¹/₁₆ miles), he showed courage by fighting for the lead and holding on to win on a sloppy track. He’s proven he can handle adversity: in Arkansas, he was shuffled but re-rallied to get thir​d. Jockey Juan Vargas knows the horse well and has ridden him aggressively to good effect (they often sit just behind the pace). Coal Battle’s off-the-pace style (stalker) could work nicely from post 16 – he can break and settle mid-pack, staying in the clear. Despite his modest pedigree (by sprinter Coal Front out of a Midshipman mare), he’s sustained his form at 8½ and 9 furlongs. In fact, he’s bred Louisiana-tough and seems to leave it all on the track every race. He’s shown he can pass horses or lead, giving Vargas tactical options. Many fans will be rooting for him as the underdog story – he could channel a Rich Strike-like upset (in 2022, an unfancied, hard-knocking colt shocked the world). If there’s chaos up front, Coal Battle’s durability and heart could see him pick up pieces late. Hitting the board would thrill his connections and he’s the kind who could outrun his odds to maybe contend for a minor placing.

• Key Negatives: Distance stamina is a concern. His pedigree leans towards one-turn speed (Coal Front was best up to 7f, Midshipman likewise a miler​. In the 1⅛-mile Arkansas Derby, Coal Battle was prominent turning for home but flattened to third, suggesting that extra distance started to tax hi​m. The Derby’s 1¼ miles is likely at the edge of his range – his pedigree “suggests the extra eighth will be a challenge​. Speed-figure-wise, his Rebel win was in the slop and came back somewhat slow, and he hasn’t yet hit triple-digit figures on dry dirt. Also, his strong record was partly built in softer company (smaller regional stakes). Facing the elite of the crop in the Arkansas Derby, he couldn’t keep up with Sandman and even got outfinished by Publisher for secon​d. That raises class questions – he’s been a big fish in smaller ponds until now. Tactically, while he’s versatile, being drawn 16 means he might be forced wide or further back than usual to find position. If he tries to press the hot pace, he could burn out by mid-stretch. It’s also notable that when he doesn’t win, he typically is beaten several lengths (no close seconds on his form) – implying that when faced with faster horses, he can’t quite match strides late. His speed figures and late pace ratings are a notch below the top closers here. Lastly, while the romantic story is appealing, historically horses with his prep profile (from minor circuits with one surprise win) rarely actually win the Derby – though they sometimes hit the bottom of supers (e.g., Commanding Curve). Coal Battle would need to take another step forward figure-wise and prove he can find an extra gear at 10 furlongs, which on paper looks tough.

• Projected Trip: Vargas will likely aim to secure a stalking spot in mid-pack, perhaps somewhere around 8th-12th early, keeping Coal Battle in the clear on the outside. From post 16, he can watch the scramble inside and gradually drop in by the first turn, maybe two or three wide. Ideally, he’ll be 5-6 lengths off the lead down the backstretch – close enough to pounce, far enough to avoid the suicidal early fractions. Coal Battle should travel comfortably given his experience, and Vargas might ask him to inch forward entering the far turn. At the top of the stretch, expect Coal Battle to be within striking range (4-5 lengths back) if he’s having a good day. The question is whether he can quicken enough. Most likely, he’ll keep on in the stretch at one pace as the true closers sprint by – he could hang around for a superfecta slot if others tire. A scenario for exceeding that would require the leaders coming back more than expected and Coal Battle finding extra stamina he hasn’t shown before.

• Fair Win Odds: 50/1. His morning line of 30-1 feels low – that’s probably a nod to his Rebel win and connections’ optimism. We believe his true win odds are in the 2% range (~50-1). As a board hitter, maybe 15-20% chance for third/fourth on a good day.

• Suggested Use: Use sparingly underneath (C). Coal Battle is a fun longshot to include in supers – his consistency means he could plod on for a minor award if the race falls apart. I’d use him in the fourth position of a superfecta, maybe third at best in a trifecta, but not higher. For exactas, he’s a reach; perhaps consider on the bottom of a few trifecta tickets if you like his story. I’m cheering for him, but from a betting standpoint he’s mostly an underneath inclusion in case he outruns expectations. (Verdict: low-tier C.)

17. Sandman (6-1) – Post 17

• Key Positives: The Arkansas Derby winner, Sandman has emerged as one of the most exciting late-runners in this crop. His victory at Oaklawn was emphatic – he roared from 8th place to win by 2½ lengths, powering through the stretc​h. That was his first try at 1⅛ miles, and he clearly loved the added distance, validating trainer Mark Casse’s long-held belief that “added distance would benefit him​. Sandman’s speed figures jumped with that effort (a 100 Beyer, one of the best in this field), and he appeared to finish with energy despite veering out slightly (a sign of still learning​. By Tapit (who sired four Belmont winners) out of a Distorted Humor mare, Sandman is bred for the Derby trip and beyon​d. He’s a big gray colt with a fantastic closing gear – his final three-eighths in the Arkansas Derby was among the fastest in any prep. Importantly, he showed in Arkansas that he can handle traffic and kick into another gear around the far turn, weaving past horses with minimal loss of momentum. That experience will serve him well in a 20-horse field. Jockey Jose Ortiz gave him a confident ride in Arkansas and retains the mount. Ortiz knows how to time a late run in the Derby (came within a length with Good Magic in 2018), and he might press the “go” button a touch earlier this time to account for Derby traffi​c. Sandman has a strong foundation of 8 races and has never finished worse than third this year – he’s steadily improving at the right time. With a projected hot pace, his deep-closing style is perfectly suited to this Derby. He has arguably the strongest finishing kick in the field – if he reproduces his Ark Derby finish, he’ll be flying past horses in the stretch. Plus, Casse is brimming with confidence, calling Sandman “as confident as I’ve ever been” going into the Derb​y. As one of the few proven 9f winners, Sandman checks the stamina and form boxes; he just needs a clean setup to be a major win threat.

• Key Negatives: Deep closers in the Derby always face the risk of a troubled trip – and post 17 historically has never produced a Derby winner (0 for 42). While that may be coincidence, it underscores that being far outside can sometimes leave a closer wide on both turns or too far back. Sandman will have to drop in or risk covering extra ground. Although he’s shown some maneuverability, weaving through a crowd of tiring horses can still be tricky – one stall shut and his momentum could be stalled (Ortiz will likely swing him wide to avoid that). Another minor concern is his habit of “lagging” early – in Arkansas, he was a distant 8th, and he’s been as far back as 10th in earlier race​. In a 20-horse field, if he drops to 18th or 19th, he could leave himself an awful lot to do. Ortiz hinted he might move earlier with hi​m – if he moves too early, though, he could hit the front and flatten out (like many closers who hit a wall by the 1/16 pole in the Derby). Sandman did drift out once he struck the lead at Oaklawn – perhaps due to inexperienc​e. If he does that against even stronger closers, any loss of focus could cost him. His Beyer and ThoroughGraph numbers, while strong, are only marginally better now than Journalism’s or Sovereignty’s – meaning he’s one of a few with similar late-speed credentials. He’ll need to kick just as hard against a deeper field. Also, note that his Arkansas Derby win came after a pace meltdown (the leaders went extremely fast early and collapsed​; if the Derby pace is more moderate than expected, his late kick might not be as devastating. In essence, Sandman’s primary obstacles are trip-related – with a fair shot, he’s as good as anyone, but closers like him can be at the mercy of traffic and pace.

• Projected Trip: Sandman will likely drop toward the rear after the break. From post 17, Ortiz will probably guide him down nearer the rail behind the second wave of horses, accepting a spot around 15th or so in the early going. Expect Sandman to be a dozen or more lengths behind at the half-mile. As the field approaches the far turn, Ortiz will begin picking his way through – perhaps sliding up the inside until mid-turn, then angling out behind the tiring speed. He’ll want Sandman to have a clear lane entering the stretch, even if it means coming 6-7 wide. Once he straightens out, Sandman should unleash that big closing run. We anticipate seeing that gray blur passing many rivals in the final furlong. The question is: how many will he catch? If he navigates smoothly and gets a hot pace, he can absolutely mow them all down in time. If he encounters even a slight hold-up or if another closer like Journalism got first run, he may fly late for a placing. But rest assured, at the eighth pole you should see Sandman charging hard on the scene.

• Fair Win Odds: 5/1. At 6-1 ML, he’s close to fair value. I’d say anything above 5-1 is acceptable for a win bet on Sandman. Given his upside, I’d still like him at those odds – he feels like a legitimate co-favorite alongside Journalism and Sovereignty.

• Suggested Use: Top Contender (B). I categorize Sandman as a win contender who will need to run his best race. Include him on most tickets – win, exacta, trifecta, multi-race. He offers a combination of proven class and a pace setup that should flatter his style. My issue with him is his sire Tapit. I have seen too many in the Derby disappoint and the more I hear the trainers and look at the tape, it is related to them developing later but also not enjoying the traffic and noise that the Derby brings. They love the distance and always seem better suited to the Belmont. Use him on tickets for place and show but I am leaving him off the win for me.

18. Sovereignty (5-1) – Post 18

• Key Positives: Godolphin’s homebred colt Sovereignty has been near the top of the Derby rankings all spring, and for good reason. He’s the Fountain of Youth Stakes winner (won decisively by open lengths) and the Florida Derby runner-up, showing class and consistency at the highest leve​l. A closer by nature, he has shown a push-button turn of foot – in the FOY, he uncorked a big rally to win going awa​y. In the Florida Derby, he had to close into a slowish pace from far back and still nearly caught Tappan Street, settling for second by about a lengt​h. His pedigree is outstanding for 10 furlongs: by Into Mischief (sire of recent Derby winners Authentic and Mandaloun) out of a Bernardini mar​e, he blends speed and stamina. Trainer Bill Mott has managed him expertly, giving him a solid foundation (5 starts) but not over-racing him. Notably, Sovereignty has a win at Churchill Downs – last fall he dominated the Street Sense Stakes over this trac​k, so we know he handles Churchill’s dirt and the Derby environment (that stakes win came on a sloppy track, too, showing he’s adaptable to conditions). Junior Alvarado, Mott’s go-to rider, missed the Florida Derby due to injury, but he’s back up no​w – he’s ridden Sovereignty in all prior wins and knows how to time his late run. From post 18, Sovereignty should be able to stay out of traffic and make his run in the clear, much like Mott’s Country House did (who crossed second in 2019 and was elevated to first). Sovereignty’s speed figures are very solid – he’s consistently run 95-98 Beyers, and ThoroGraph likes his pattern (paired 2’s, indicating he can move forward). Importantly, he’s improved with each two-turn start and has not shown any sign of distance limitations. He’s also shown he can overcome adversity – in the BC Juvenile he stumbled badly at the start and still ran on for a close fourth in just his third star​t. All signs point to Sovereignty being one of the most reliable closers in the field: he’ll fire his shot pretty much no matter what. If the pace is even moderately fast, he should be rolling in the stretch. Add in the famed Godolphin blue silks (seeking their first official Derby win after 2019’s DQ) and Mott’s masterful training (seeking an outright Derby after winning via DQ in 2019​, and you have a top contender with a big storyline.

• Key Negatives: There are few chinks in Sovereignty’s armor, but one could raise the fact that he’s been beaten – he lost to Tappan Street in the Florida Derb​y. Granted, Tappan Street got loose on an easier pace and Sovereignty still made up ground late, but it shows he can be vulnerable if things don’t set up ideally. He hasn’t yet run a truly explosive final time – his wins have been visually impressive but in modest time (the FOY was not particularly fast on the clock). In the Florida Derby, he closed well but couldn’t reel in a high-quality colt; you could argue he might lack just a hair of the killer punch that, say, Sandman showed in Arkansas. Additionally, he’s a closer who will need some racing luck – like all deep closers, if he gets hung wide or has to wait behind horses, it could dull his kick. Post 18 could either help (fewer horses to weave through outside) or hurt (very wide trip if he doesn’t drop in early). Alvarado will likely drop back and angle over, but Sovereignty might be spotting an elite closer like Journalism a couple lengths if Journalism breaks from post 8 and secures a mid-pack spot. Essentially, there’s a scenario where Journalism or Sandman get first run and Sovereignty has a touch more to do. Lastly, Mott has openly said there’s “not much to quibble about” with this col​t – which is more a positive – but if one were to nitpick, Sovereignty’s Beyer plateaued around 97-98; if someone pops a 102 figure on Derby day, could he be just a bit outrun late? It’s a slim concern. Historically, Godolphin runners sometimes underperform at Churchill for whatever reason (travel, etc.), but Sovereignty’s already been here and won, which mitigates that concern. In sum, the only real negative is that closers like him occasionally find one or two horses that also kick – he may need to outkick Sandman, Journalism, and others in the same race.

• Projected Trip: Look for Sovereignty to be unhurried out of the gate. From post 18, Alvarado will likely guide him towards the two-path by the time they hit the first turn, settling near the rear of the field. He could be around 14th-16th early, maybe 10-12 lengths behind after the opening half-mile. He tends to relax kindly, so he should avoid any tugging or rank behavior. Down the backstretch, expect him to race in the clear on the outside, monitoring horses like Sandman who may be a few spots ahead. As the pace starts to tire, Alvarado will begin a sustained advance 3-4 furlongs from home – he might gradually pick off horses and have Sovereignty somewhere in the second half of the pack but moving, by the top of the stretch. At that point, he’ll likely swing out to the center of the track and unleash his run. Sovereignty has shown he can sustain a drive – he doesn’t have a super short burst, more a grinding acceleration – so he’ll be steadily gaining through the stretch. We envision him charging into the top tier inside the final 1/16th. Whether he gets up for the win depends on how far back he was and what the likes of Journalism and Sandman are doing, but he should be right there. A clean, fast-paced race yields a scenario where Sovereignty is looming into the exacta at the finish.

• Fair Win Odds: 9/2. His 5-1 morning line is appropriate; I have him around 16-18% to win, similar to Journalism. Anything above 5-1 would be an overlay on his quality.

• Suggested Use: Top Contender (A). I consider Sovereignty an “A” horse in all wagers. He’s as consistent and qualified as they come. Use him in win bets if he drifts near or above 5-1. In exactas, I’ll be boxing him with the other top closers (Journalism, Sandman, plus maybe one or two value plays like Luxor or Burnham). In trifectas/supers, Sovereignty is a great key in the top 3 – he’s the kind who should be in the trifecta if the race flow is even remotely fair. Because he finishes strongly, he’s also an excellent horse to use in multi-race exotics (Pick 3s, 4s) – leaving him off could be costly. Overall, I am very confident Sovereignty will run his race – making him a prime win candidate and a must-use in all vertical and horizontal bets.

19. Chunk of Gold (30-1) – Post 19

• Key Positives: Another heartwarming tale, Chunk of Gold cost only $2,500 as a yearling – truly a “little guy” success story​. Trained by 32-year-old Ethan West and owned by Terry Stephens (a small operation), this gray gelding has outrun his humble origins at every step. He has yet to finish worse than second in four starts (1 win, 3 seconds​). Notably, he jumped from an all-weather campaign at Turfway (where he broke his maiden and was stakes-placed) to the Fair Grounds series and acquitted himself well: he was a distant second in the Risen Star Stakes at 1⅛ miles and then a closer second in the Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 mile​. In both those Fair Grounds preps, he passed numerous horses – showing grinding late speed – and clearly established himself as the best of the longshots, behind only the winners Magnitude and Tiztastic. His final fractions in the Louisiana Derby were respectable (he actually finished ahead of everyone but Tiztastic​. “Chunk” is bred for more ground: by Preservationist (a son of Arch) out of a Cairo Prince mar​e, he has a mix of stamina (Arch line) and miler speed; interestingly, Preservationist himself improved with age and won the 10f Woodward at 6 years old. As a gelding, Chunk of Gold has been all business – he’s very tractable and professional for a lightly raced horse. He’s also one of the few in this field proven at 1 3/16 miles (just a sixteenth shy of the Derby distance), so you know he can handle a long route. Jockey Jareth Loveberry guided him expertly in both FG starts and retains the mount; Loveberry nearly won the Derby last year with 2-year-old champion Two Phil’s (finished a close second), so he has experience navigating a closer from an outside post. Loveberry and West have kept Chunk of Gold under the radar at Churchill, with some smart maintenance works over the Trackside training center, preserving his energy. With nothing to lose, they can ride him for a piece and hope the race falls apart – exactly the scenario where bombs like him clunk up. If a pace meltdown ensues, Chunk of Gold will be plugging away in the stretch; he hasn’t run a single bad race and figures to keep grinding when others quit.

• Key Negatives: Though admirably consistent, he lacks the turn of foot of the top contenders. His seconds in the Risen Star and LA Derby were rather distant – 9¾ lengths behind Magnitude in one, 2¼ behind Tiztastic in the othe​r. That suggests he was picking up the pieces rather than threatening to win. His speed figures reflect that as well – he’s been running in the low-90s Beyer range, well below what’s needed to actually contend for the win here. Essentially, he’s been “best of the rest” in the second tier of preps, but hasn’t truly mixed it up with horses like Sovereignty, Sandman, etc. One could argue he’s a touch below Derby quality on pure ability; he got into the field with 75 points mainly because others in his prep circles (Magnitude, Good Rapport) dropped off. Also, he’s making just his fifth start – while that’s not unprecedented for a Derby winner, he has not won a stakes or raced outside Turfway/Fair Grounds. The class leap is significant and he’ll be facing far more early speed than in his prior races. Post 19 is tricky for a horse without early foot – Loveberry will likely have to drop far back (perhaps last early) to save ground, meaning Chunk could be 18th or 19th for much of the race. Passing nearly the entire field is a tall task for a horse who’s thus far only passed tired horses in smaller fields. Additionally, as much as his pedigree has stamina, it might also limit his explosiveness – Preservationist and Cairo Prince aren’t known for producing Derby winners. We might simply see him run his race, maybe passing a bunch late to finish mid-pack, which would be a fine effort but not enough to crack the superfecta. Essentially, his ceiling seems to be sneaking into 4th or 5th if chaos reigns, whereas the win seems out of reach barring a miracle. Lastly, his one win came on synthetic; he’s still a maiden on dirt (0-for-2, albeit in graded stakes). That’s a tough status to shed in a race this difficult.

• Projected Trip: From the far outside, Loveberry will almost certainly take back and angle toward the rail. Chunk of Gold should be among the last horses early, possibly dead last by the first turn. He’ll hope to save ground and pray the pace is blistering. We expect him to hug the inside rail and gradually advance as others tire. On the far turn, he may sneak past fading speed horses on the inside, then angle out behind the other closers entering the stretch. In the lane, he’ll try to keep plugging on – he doesn’t have a big burst, but he keeps coming. If a bunch of the favorites duke it out and maybe two or three falter late, Chunk of Gold can pick them off to move up in position. In an optimal scenario, he could clunk into 4th or so, similar to how Golden Soul got 2nd in 2013 or Tale of Verve got 2nd in the Preakness at huge odds. More likely, he passes the exhausted front-runners and finishes somewhere around 6th-9th. His stamina and steady finish should ensure he outruns many of the speed horses, but catching the elite closers is a big ask.

• Fair Win Odds: ~80/1. At 30-1 ML he’s significantly overbet in terms of win probability – that line probably reflects sentimental money. Realistically, he should be among the longest shots in the field to win (only Render Judgment and maybe Neoequos are comparably unlikely). We’d price him at least 80-1 or more to actually wear the roses.

• Suggested Use: Underneath only, in supers (C). Chunk of Gold is a feel-good story and a candidate to outrun his odds, but not likely enough to crack the trifecta. I’d include him on some superfecta tickets in 4th place – he could definitely clunk up for fourth if the race falls apart (he’s the kind who will still be running when others are stopping). As for exactas or trifectas, you might toss him in third on one or two deep wheels if you’re playing for a blow-up scenario, but it’s not a high-percentage play. Emotions aside, he’s mostly a “use underneath” longshot for the bottom of high-risk tickets. I’ll cheer for him, but he’s not a key part of my wagering strategy.

20. Owen Almighty (30-1) – Post 20

• Key Positives: The Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner, Owen Almighty has something many in here don’t: a graded stakes win on dirt. In Tampa, he wired the field, going 1¹/₁₆ miles in a visually impressive 3½-length victor​. That showed he has excellent early speed and can carry it around two turns. He’s drawn the extreme outside (post 20), which at least eliminates any chance of getting pinned inside – jockey Javier Castellano can gun him and try to clear the field. If by some chance he does cross and get to the rail early, he could dictate terms. Trainer Brian Lynch is adept with speedy types (he nearly won the 2016 Derby with front-running Nyquist) and wouldn’t send Owen here unless the colt bounced out of the Blue Grass in good shape. After his dominant Tampa win, Lynch tested him in the Blue Grass where he pressed the pace and ultimately faded to a dead-heat sixt​h. While that result wasn’t great, he did show grit fighting on until mid-stretch and gained some experience rating just off another horse. If you believe he simply didn’t handle Keeneland’s deeper track or the extra distance that day, you could project improvement back on Churchill’s surface (which often is kind to horses with Tampa form – note 2007 Street Sense). His speed figures at 8½f (Tampa Derby earned a 98 BRIS fig) suggest that if allowed to run freely, he’s fast enough to be a pace factor. One also might consider that he’s reunited with Castellano, a Hall of Fame rider who is coming off winning last year’s Derby with a longshot (Mage). Castellano knows how to ride aggressive when needed and will surely send hard from the gate – maybe he can nurse Owen into a decent position by the clubhouse turn. If somehow the pace scenario ends up less contested than expected (for instance, Citizen Bull and Neoequos don’t break well, etc.), a horse like Owen Almighty could find himself more prominent than expected and could hang on longer than people think. He’s also shown he can handle a large crowd and noise – the Tampa Derby was a big event – so the Derby scene might not frazzle him as much as some others. In sum, he has one big asset: pure early speed, and sometimes weird things happen if a speed horse gets loose.

• Key Negatives: Almost everything else. Simply put, the consensus is that Owen Almighty is distance-limited and coming off a subpar effor​t. His pedigree (Speightstown × Bayern) screams miler – Speightstown is a sprinter sire, and Bayern, while a 9f Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, won that race by carving a slow pace and never won beyond 9f agai​n. After Owen’s Blue Grass fade, even his trainer Brian Lynch publicly doubted his stamina for the Derby distanc​e, originally planning to skip the Derby. It was only the owners’ change of heart (“Derby allure too good to pass up”) that put him in the gat​e. That lack of trainer confidence is a glaring red flag – if Lynch didn’t think he could get 10f, it’s hard to argue otherwise. The Blue Grass pretty well exposed that when pressed at 9f, Owen had no answer late. The Derby’s 10f, with even more early pressure, is likely to be beyond him. Also, his Tampa Bay Derby win, while flashy, came against arguably a weak field (none of the horses he beat there made the Derby). When he stepped up in the Blue Grass, he faced real Derby contenders and was beaten ~6 length​. Post 20 is brutal for his style – he will either be caught extremely wide into the first turn or have to use excessive energy to cross over. And given at least 4-5 other quality speeds inside him, he’s almost assured a wide trip. A fast pace seems guaranteed as well, which is poison for his chances. Lastly, his morning-line odds of 30-1 likely won’t even hold – most expect him to drift to 50-1 or more by post time, reflecting the collective skepticism. In many ways, he’s shaping up as this year’s “rabbit” – a horse whose primary impact is ensuring a hot pace rather than contending himself.

• Projected Trip: Look for Castellano to send Owen Almighty full-throttle from the gate. Breaking from the far outside, he must try to out-sprint everyone to the first turn. Best case, he clears most of the field and only maybe one horse inside (like Citizen Bull) goes with him. More likely, he’ll be caught at least 3-4 wide entering the turn as several others insist on the lead too. He should nonetheless be among the top 3 going into the backstretch – that’s his nature. Through the backstretch, expect Owen to either be dueling on the front or sitting just off one or two inside speeds, effectively parking outside the leaders. Either scenario is rough: if he’s dueling, the fractions will be sharp and he’ll be using a lot of fuel; if he’s parked wide pressing, he’ll be losing ground throughout. By the far turn, logic says the closers will be moving and Owen Almighty will be coming under heavy pressure. We anticipate that somewhere between the 3/8 and 1/4 pole, he’ll begin to fade as the stamina test catches up to hi​m. In the stretch, it’s likely he’ll drop out of contention – he might battle to mid-stretch then tire noticeably (as happened in Blue Grass). Given his heart, he might still be in the frame at the quarter pole, but by the final furlong expect him to be retreating toward the back. A finish near the tail of the field is unfortunately plausible.

• Fair Win Odds: 99/1. He’s arguably the longest shot to win in this field due to the distance issue – we’d put him at near 1% chance or less. In other words, triple-digit odds truly reflect his win probability.

• Suggested Use: Toss (X). I do not advise using Owen Almighty in any bets other than perhaps a token inclusion in a high-risk superfecta if you believe something bizarre will happen (e.g., he miraculously holds on for 4th). In fact, his presence is more valuable for how it influences others (fast pace) than for his own finish. I will be excluding him on all tickets, accepting that if he somehow wires the Derby, I lose – a scenario I am willing to risk given all evidence. In summary, Owen Almighty is a pace factor I am tossing, expecting him to drop out by the top of the stretch.

· Baeza (12-1 ML) – Post 21 (Also Eligible)
Baeza enters the Derby picture as a serious X-factor— Baeza brings an elite blend of pedigree, pattern, and finishing power. In the Santa Anita Derby, he finished a fast-closing second to Journalism—with great Brisnet Late Pace rating for the second race in a row. He has improved with every start, suggesting he's on the verge of a breakout. His pedigree—screams 1¼ miles. Baeza moves like a horse who gets stronger late. He's also trained well at Churchill and has reportedly adjusted to the surface nicely. From the far outside post (21), Baeza will need a clean break and tuck in behind the pack, but that may help if there is a contested early pace and he settles in the mid-pack. The more chaotic the pace, the better his setup.

His resume is arguably lighter than Journalism’s or Sovereignty’s, and there’s some uncertainty over whether he’s battle-tested enough to weave through 19 rivals. However, the upside is undeniable: his Thoro-Graph pattern is progressing perfectly, his Santa Anita Derby performance would be the top performance if not for Journalism and he looks like a horse begging for more distance as he is a Mr Prospector horse which continue to dominate the Triple crown races. Baeza is a must-use underneath in trifectas and superfectas, and he’s a compelling win longshot if you want a fresh face with the upside to pull a Mage-style upset. In multi-race wagers, he’s a clear “B” for us—one with a real chance to capitalize if the race falls apart in front of him.