having listened to you for the past year, I think this is a brilliant and succinct summary of everything you’ve been driving at and everything you’re analysis has pointed to. Thank you. Readers, I think this should be shared with everybody you know.
White collar folks seem to not think about blue collar jobs when they write these forecasts. Onshoring, AI data centers and power plants will require large blue collar workforces. Robots may do some minor household tasks and repetitive factory jobs but will not have the strength, dexterity and skills to do jobs that humans do. Imagine a robot out in the snow repairing a power line? I can't. The old "learn to code" is now "learn to weld". Unfortunately, most young people wouldn't know what a callus is if it hit them in the head.
Agreed. Robots are coming but the 3-5 years timing seems off compared with what we expect for humanoid robotics and therefore blue collar job displacement.
Further the cost of healthcare and housing should come down dramatically if the government frees up those markets.
Amazing. Not new in sense of labor’s diminishment and AI’s impact also on BTC but incredibly clearly demonstrated. End of labor based capitalism. Profound insights.
21 million isn't scarce tho.. for example, quality companies buy back their shares, so outstanding shares go down over time, thats "more scarce" than bitcoin, mathematically. So what really makes bitcoin scarce is good marketing and convincing people to "believe its scarce" when in reality, its not at all, compared to many assets. But with great marketing it can continue to capture mindshare and go higher over time. But without that, it will struggle. So bitcoiners, get to work!
You have alot of marketing to do.. to manufacture scarcity.
Yeah its not scarce at all. It can also be dividend into way smaller parts. If there isn't enough buyers for the 21 million coins, its quite the opposite of scarce... its overly abundant!
Its a manufactued story. It requires marketing, story telling, narrative and sucking in new buyers who believe to go up. It requires blog posts just like this!
Bitcoin hasn’t outperformed stocks since 2017 peak so its outsized gains went to early adopters .. until things change at best it will keep up with stocks , at worst it will under perform 🤝🦍.. that’s a tall order for new entrants .. why would an average person favor Bitcoin over stocks for a similiar return and much more risk .. the Bitcoin brigade has their work cut out for them !
The main point is that its supply is capped and it's outside the current system. It's neutral (math based), it's decentraliserad (not governed by any nation), it's global.
Right but the 21 million and "capped supply" is really just a marketing gimmick that only works if you have a demand of buyers coming in for those coins to offset sellers and inflation per year (which is very low).. bitcoiners are good at recruiting and selling the narrative so I dont doubt that long term they will make price go up. But ultimatley its this collective marketing and mindshare that drives the price, it has NOTHING to do with 21 million or hard cap supply. Thats a good selling point tho. Its simple. So thats why its a great point to tell people when brining them into the group.
This is an extremely uneducated take. The price will go down with less buyers but the 21 million cap will remain. Sure, a company can buy back shares to create a version of scarcity but they can also flood the market with shares if they so choose. Bitcoin is the first asset to exist that is digital, portable and truly scarce. The fact that no one can control the rules of the protocol is literally the entire point.
It’s not scarce because a group of people decided 21 million was scarce.. scarcity only exits from growth of the network and consistent new believers coming online .. lack of new believers and good bitcoin marketing = it fades out of limelight over time , like I said bitcoiners are good at story telling , so they prob do a decent job long term. But to say it’s actually scarce is really just a figment of our imaginations , and confirms Bitcoin is purely a mindshare play. The fact that it’s “decentralized” doesn’t matter if bitconers fail to market in the future.
I agree with Jake here. The code gives Bitcoin a supply cap (21m is an arbitrary number). Meaning the code guarantees no more Bitcoin than 21m will ever be created. This guarantee is not in place for # stocks outstanding, # dollars in the system or # ounces of gold available. You can argue that a stock is more scarce because buy backs take place, but that is not of value if there is no guarantee there will no future equity raises (which is a guarantee that is almost impossible to make). On top of that, a stock misses many other characteristics important for a good money, such as divisibility, salability, verifiability, censorship resistance, etc. Because Bitcoin is (the most) perfect money, largely because of its scarcity, it will create demand.
Well those values are subjective and require marketing in order for it to manifest in a higher bitcoin price, thats part of the brainwashing/mindshare capture and bitcoiners do a great job of "sucking people in to the vortex" better than anyone.. from a penny to 125k per coin, unheard of ! The question is, can they market to that level the next 15 years? Perhaps a slow grind higher over time is more fitting going forward.. Im not bearish on bitcoin, im just a realist, I dont buy into any of those made up narratives, its about people coming in, "believing" in the story and buying, end of story. Very few people are "Their own bank" now, its dependent on etf flows, etc for price going up now..
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, as you know, is corrupted. But I understand staying away from that truth. Most people can’t handle the truth. Thank you for being a truth seeker and for your contribution to the cause of getting through the 4th turning.
I tried to read the article, but kept being derailed by how much ai slop syntax there is in here. The constant "This isn't x, it's y". I've always enjoyed your long form articles and tweets but too much outsourcing to an LLM is distasteful, imo.
Nice one, Jordi. The Q3 2025 figures say it all: capitalism has quietly severed the labour–capital pact. AI gives capital infinite workers at zero marginal cost → record profits, virtually no jobs, and a shattered meritocracy. The psychological fracture is profound.
The really big question now: what are all these former workers going to do with their lives to find meaning? That in itself could be a rather interesting business model.
Bitcoin as the new scarcity anchor in this age of abundance? Inevitable. Exciting (and rather wild) times ahead. Brilliant piece.
Buy crypto or get consumed. Pretty accurate and dismal message. I agree with this entirely. Thank you. I enjoy watching you and Pomp every Saturday. — John
I am not so sure about that take. There are projects like chain link, XRP, ETH, and Kaspa that offer solutions Bitcoin doesn't do as well. Bitcoin is the asset that will collateralize digital infrastructure.
Fair enough. I love blockchain, have owned the ones you mentioned and have been rooting for cardano. Don’t know if that will ever be relevant. Bitcoin will capitalize the world🦾
Damn, Jordi. I love reading your papers because of the depth you hit. AI breaking the chain of Capitalism,transitioning to the need for something provably scarce in the inevitable world of abundance, you break things down so well. This was both super fun to read and incredibly eye opening. Thank you.
having listened to you for the past year, I think this is a brilliant and succinct summary of everything you’ve been driving at and everything you’re analysis has pointed to. Thank you. Readers, I think this should be shared with everybody you know.
ＷｈａｔｓａｐｐME➕𝟭↡𝟵𝟳𝟬↡𝟰𝟬𝟴↡𝟴𝟯𝟲𝟯
White collar folks seem to not think about blue collar jobs when they write these forecasts. Onshoring, AI data centers and power plants will require large blue collar workforces. Robots may do some minor household tasks and repetitive factory jobs but will not have the strength, dexterity and skills to do jobs that humans do. Imagine a robot out in the snow repairing a power line? I can't. The old "learn to code" is now "learn to weld". Unfortunately, most young people wouldn't know what a callus is if it hit them in the head.
ＷｈａｔｓａｐｐME➕𝟭↡𝟵𝟳𝟬↡𝟰𝟬𝟴↡𝟴𝟯𝟲𝟯
Agreed. Robots are coming but the 3-5 years timing seems off compared with what we expect for humanoid robotics and therefore blue collar job displacement.
Further the cost of healthcare and housing should come down dramatically if the government frees up those markets.
Amazing. Not new in sense of labor’s diminishment and AI’s impact also on BTC but incredibly clearly demonstrated. End of labor based capitalism. Profound insights.
ＷｈａｔｓａｐｐME➕𝟭↡𝟵𝟳𝟬↡𝟰𝟬𝟴↡𝟴𝟯𝟲𝟯
21 million isn't scarce tho.. for example, quality companies buy back their shares, so outstanding shares go down over time, thats "more scarce" than bitcoin, mathematically. So what really makes bitcoin scarce is good marketing and convincing people to "believe its scarce" when in reality, its not at all, compared to many assets. But with great marketing it can continue to capture mindshare and go higher over time. But without that, it will struggle. So bitcoiners, get to work!
You have alot of marketing to do.. to manufacture scarcity.
ＷｈａｔｓａｐｐME➕𝟭↡𝟵𝟳𝟬↡𝟰𝟬𝟴↡𝟴𝟯𝟲𝟯
If you think 21 million isn’t scarce on a planet with 6 billion people you need remedial math class
Yeah its not scarce at all. It can also be dividend into way smaller parts. If there isn't enough buyers for the 21 million coins, its quite the opposite of scarce... its overly abundant!
Its a manufactued story. It requires marketing, story telling, narrative and sucking in new buyers who believe to go up. It requires blog posts just like this!
Warmed over 2017 arguments like these are why it’s going to succeed. Scarcity is about how many units exist, not how small you can slice them!
Bitcoin hasn’t outperformed stocks since 2017 peak so its outsized gains went to early adopters .. until things change at best it will keep up with stocks , at worst it will under perform 🤝🦍.. that’s a tall order for new entrants .. why would an average person favor Bitcoin over stocks for a similiar return and much more risk .. the Bitcoin brigade has their work cut out for them !
ＷｈａｔｓａｐｐME➕𝟭↡𝟵𝟳𝟬↡𝟰𝟬𝟴↡𝟴𝟯𝟲𝟯
The main point is that its supply is capped and it's outside the current system. It's neutral (math based), it's decentraliserad (not governed by any nation), it's global.
Right but the 21 million and "capped supply" is really just a marketing gimmick that only works if you have a demand of buyers coming in for those coins to offset sellers and inflation per year (which is very low).. bitcoiners are good at recruiting and selling the narrative so I dont doubt that long term they will make price go up. But ultimatley its this collective marketing and mindshare that drives the price, it has NOTHING to do with 21 million or hard cap supply. Thats a good selling point tho. Its simple. So thats why its a great point to tell people when brining them into the group.
This is an extremely uneducated take. The price will go down with less buyers but the 21 million cap will remain. Sure, a company can buy back shares to create a version of scarcity but they can also flood the market with shares if they so choose. Bitcoin is the first asset to exist that is digital, portable and truly scarce. The fact that no one can control the rules of the protocol is literally the entire point.
It’s not scarce because a group of people decided 21 million was scarce.. scarcity only exits from growth of the network and consistent new believers coming online .. lack of new believers and good bitcoin marketing = it fades out of limelight over time , like I said bitcoiners are good at story telling , so they prob do a decent job long term. But to say it’s actually scarce is really just a figment of our imaginations , and confirms Bitcoin is purely a mindshare play. The fact that it’s “decentralized” doesn’t matter if bitconers fail to market in the future.
I agree with Jake here. The code gives Bitcoin a supply cap (21m is an arbitrary number). Meaning the code guarantees no more Bitcoin than 21m will ever be created. This guarantee is not in place for # stocks outstanding, # dollars in the system or # ounces of gold available. You can argue that a stock is more scarce because buy backs take place, but that is not of value if there is no guarantee there will no future equity raises (which is a guarantee that is almost impossible to make). On top of that, a stock misses many other characteristics important for a good money, such as divisibility, salability, verifiability, censorship resistance, etc. Because Bitcoin is (the most) perfect money, largely because of its scarcity, it will create demand.
Well those values are subjective and require marketing in order for it to manifest in a higher bitcoin price, thats part of the brainwashing/mindshare capture and bitcoiners do a great job of "sucking people in to the vortex" better than anyone.. from a penny to 125k per coin, unheard of ! The question is, can they market to that level the next 15 years? Perhaps a slow grind higher over time is more fitting going forward.. Im not bearish on bitcoin, im just a realist, I dont buy into any of those made up narratives, its about people coming in, "believing" in the story and buying, end of story. Very few people are "Their own bank" now, its dependent on etf flows, etc for price going up now..
Nice to hear the truth of how it’s all going to play out!
ＷｈａｔｓａｐｐME➕𝟭↡𝟵𝟳𝟬↡𝟰𝟬𝟴↡𝟴𝟯𝟲𝟯
This is digital gold!!!!
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, as you know, is corrupted. But I understand staying away from that truth. Most people can’t handle the truth. Thank you for being a truth seeker and for your contribution to the cause of getting through the 4th turning.
ＷｈａｔｓａｐｐME➕𝟭↡𝟵𝟳𝟬↡𝟰𝟬𝟴↡𝟴𝟯𝟲𝟯
Jordi FUCKS
What if Satoshi is not human? Bitcoin is a gift to humanity…
ＷｈａｔｓａｐｐME➕𝟭↡𝟵𝟳𝟬↡𝟰𝟬𝟴↡𝟴𝟯𝟲𝟯
Excellent piece - further discussed in detail on Moonshots interview with Elon Musk. It is a long 2 hr 50 min discussion but worth the listen.
https://youtu.be/RSNuB9pj9P8?si=hpJm-Vi9xUOkOMgO
I tried to read the article, but kept being derailed by how much ai slop syntax there is in here. The constant "This isn't x, it's y". I've always enjoyed your long form articles and tweets but too much outsourcing to an LLM is distasteful, imo.
Curious what names are you bullish on for 2026?? Are you just heavily waited Bitcoin? What is on your main portfolio or Watchlist?
ＷｈａｔｓａｐｐME➕𝟭↡𝟵𝟳𝟬↡𝟰𝟬𝟴↡𝟴𝟯𝟲𝟯
Nice one, Jordi. The Q3 2025 figures say it all: capitalism has quietly severed the labour–capital pact. AI gives capital infinite workers at zero marginal cost → record profits, virtually no jobs, and a shattered meritocracy. The psychological fracture is profound.
The really big question now: what are all these former workers going to do with their lives to find meaning? That in itself could be a rather interesting business model.
Bitcoin as the new scarcity anchor in this age of abundance? Inevitable. Exciting (and rather wild) times ahead. Brilliant piece.
Thank you Jordi! I continue to learn from your research and knowledge!
ＷｈａｔｓａｐｐME➕𝟭↡𝟵𝟳𝟬↡𝟰𝟬𝟴↡𝟴𝟯𝟲𝟯
Buy crypto or get consumed. Pretty accurate and dismal message. I agree with this entirely. Thank you. I enjoy watching you and Pomp every Saturday. — John
Bitcoin, not crypto
I am not so sure about that take. There are projects like chain link, XRP, ETH, and Kaspa that offer solutions Bitcoin doesn't do as well. Bitcoin is the asset that will collateralize digital infrastructure.
Fair enough. I love blockchain, have owned the ones you mentioned and have been rooting for cardano. Don’t know if that will ever be relevant. Bitcoin will capitalize the world🦾
Damn, Jordi. I love reading your papers because of the depth you hit. AI breaking the chain of Capitalism,transitioning to the need for something provably scarce in the inevitable world of abundance, you break things down so well. This was both super fun to read and incredibly eye opening. Thank you.
ＷｈａｔｓａｐｐME➕𝟭↡𝟵𝟳𝟬↡𝟰𝟬𝟴↡𝟴𝟯𝟲𝟯