In 1897, a young girl named Virginia O’Hanlon wrote to the New York Sun with a simple but profound question: “Is there a Santa Claus?” The editorial board responded with what would become one of the most famous lines in American journalism: “Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus.” It was not an affirmation of literal truth, but rather a defense of belief, the idea that some myths endure because people want and need them to be real.
What struck me most, Jordi, is your lead in to this article. Being wrong.
It's a rare gift to have. The ability to be wrong. And for those who are at the pinnacle of either power, wealth, knowledge... it is even more rare to find that trait. Willing to admit being wrong.
But to be able to that is a superpower. It is the one barrier to learning some can never cross.
The year isnt over. One thing Ive learned about Bitcoin is expect the unexpected. If Fed gets dovish and eases rates......off to the races with Bitcoin. Its like a leaky faucet drip drip drip GUSH!
Nice. I take Michael Howells work on Global Liquidity as the best research art global liquidity and bitcoin.. has tracked the former from Salomon bros, days. Also btc price is exactly on the power law model price from. Imo some institutions use that as the pricing model, and only excessive liquidity will push +1 std to a 'blow off top'. Otherwise we grind up
In the world of currency debasement isn't the real risk to stay in tge "risk off" assets? My life felt like spinning the hampster wheel after working for 25 years in a well paid industry. Even after that i felt i couldn't afford to stop working. Then i sat and did the calcs of returns for main asset classes over 25 years and felt quite paralyzed by the insights. What felt like risk off is actually the opposite.
Jordi you've handled our angst with great arguments. WIth the Fed caught in a cleft stick, calling short temr BTC isn't easy. But your affirmation of faith towards the end could have done with some confirmatory insights.
what an articulated description, BTC = freedom and fear will not get in, Masses all over the world will have that any time, any where, 24/7, you are your own bank, and nom one can take it from you
Barry Silbert is advocating Bittensor and he thinks it could be a better store of value than Bitcoin. Bittensor, a crypto that brings the attributes of Bitcoin and AI problem solving together to form a protocol environment with an incentive structure that rewards excellence in solving problems. If successful, is this a magnitude better Bitcoin than Bitcoin?
Thank you for all your posts and YouTube videos. Very helpful. Do not you think that undeperformance of Bitcoin and Mag 7 related to re-industrilization of US economy? The stocks related to building data centers robotics, automatization of manufacturing, grid upgrade, nuclear are performing well and outlook is very positive. There is no scarcity of growth as before.
Every great truth begins as heresy.Calling Bitcoin a "risk asset" is less about what it is, and more about how legacy systems need to categorize it.
The irony: the real risk lies in the system people think is safe.
What struck me most, Jordi, is your lead in to this article. Being wrong.
It's a rare gift to have. The ability to be wrong. And for those who are at the pinnacle of either power, wealth, knowledge... it is even more rare to find that trait. Willing to admit being wrong.
But to be able to that is a superpower. It is the one barrier to learning some can never cross.
Great article. Thanks.
'Twas the night before insight, and all through the land
The investors were stirring, with Bitcoin in hand
The tailwinds were blowing, with adoption so bright
But the price refused to rise, and it wasn't quite right
The Fed was expanding, with liquidity so free
Corporations were buying, with treasury glee
The IPOs were buzzing, with excitement so high
But still, Bitcoin lagged, and the price said goodbye
To the hopes of the bulls, who had expected a rise
As the macro conditions aligned, with a favorable surprise
But the truth came to light, like a Christmas morning dew
Bitcoin's price is tied to liquidity, that's what it would do
It's not uncorrelated, as some would like to claim
But a risk asset, with a price that's tied to the game
It trades with the S&P, and the Nasdaq too
A reflection of flows, and the liquidity crew
The Mag 7, they shone bright, with earnings so grand
But even they faltered, as the AI winds began to change hands
Their dominance will fade, like the industrial age
But Bitcoin will endure, a risk asset on every stage
For it's not just a myth, or a fleeting trend
But a belief that's grounded, in the hard proof that it lends
To the power of decentralization, and the freedom it brings
Bitcoin will remain, as the risk assets take wings
Yes, Virginia, Bitcoin is a risk asset, indeed
And it may be the one, that will forever proceed
To be a store of value, a hedge against the tide
A risk asset that endures, as the others subside.
Llama4 Maverick
The year isnt over. One thing Ive learned about Bitcoin is expect the unexpected. If Fed gets dovish and eases rates......off to the races with Bitcoin. Its like a leaky faucet drip drip drip GUSH!
Fed cut, liquidity up, leverage up, bitcoin up.
Nice piece!
Nice. I take Michael Howells work on Global Liquidity as the best research art global liquidity and bitcoin.. has tracked the former from Salomon bros, days. Also btc price is exactly on the power law model price from. Imo some institutions use that as the pricing model, and only excessive liquidity will push +1 std to a 'blow off top'. Otherwise we grind up
Power Law in the long run. Liquidity in the short run.
Interesting!
I would argue that any asset that requires investment has risk. So, what asset isn’t a risk-on asset?
It’s more a measure of volatility than whether there’s risk or not.
In the world of currency debasement isn't the real risk to stay in tge "risk off" assets? My life felt like spinning the hampster wheel after working for 25 years in a well paid industry. Even after that i felt i couldn't afford to stop working. Then i sat and did the calcs of returns for main asset classes over 25 years and felt quite paralyzed by the insights. What felt like risk off is actually the opposite.
In other words, bitcoin or bust :)
Jordi you've handled our angst with great arguments. WIth the Fed caught in a cleft stick, calling short temr BTC isn't easy. But your affirmation of faith towards the end could have done with some confirmatory insights.
Hey Jordi, is there any way for an individual investor to access your 22v research paper on Tesla? Would love to read it. Thanks!
what an articulated description, BTC = freedom and fear will not get in, Masses all over the world will have that any time, any where, 24/7, you are your own bank, and nom one can take it from you
Barry Silbert is advocating Bittensor and he thinks it could be a better store of value than Bitcoin. Bittensor, a crypto that brings the attributes of Bitcoin and AI problem solving together to form a protocol environment with an incentive structure that rewards excellence in solving problems. If successful, is this a magnitude better Bitcoin than Bitcoin?
... It sure is fun when it shoots to the Moon though...
Thank you for all your posts and YouTube videos. Very helpful. Do not you think that undeperformance of Bitcoin and Mag 7 related to re-industrilization of US economy? The stocks related to building data centers robotics, automatization of manufacturing, grid upgrade, nuclear are performing well and outlook is very positive. There is no scarcity of growth as before.